犯罪理論之統合分析:以社會進化論與行為增強理論為軸

Abstract

本文將犯罪理論依社會化不良、由於所需資源無法滿止而引起的長期緊張、及犯罪當前的理性抉擇因素加以歸類整理後，從犯罪有關期刊找出使用官方犯罪統計並列出與犯罪有相關係數之實証研究為樣本（計46篇），用統合分析（或稱後設分析）將相關係數化為效應量，求出總平扚效應量，並檢定其是否顯著的不等於零。結果顯出支持本研究的假設：一個人如果社會化不良，所需之資源貧乏（但無法用合法手段獲得），且有適當的目標物，且目標物的有力監督者不在場，且自認犯案後被偵破的機率愈低，則犯案的機率愈高。 This study classifies crime theories into three categories：long-term（poor socialization）, mid-term（deprivation of needed resources that could not be acquired through legal ways）, and short-term（crime opportunity and low probability of clearance）factors, which have strong relationships with crimes. Empirical research articles, which used official crime statistics as raw data and presented a correlation matrix between crime and its potential causal variables from criminological journals, were analyzed by means of meta-analysis. The correlation coefficients were transformed into effect sized. The average effect size of each potential independent variable was tested by means of a t-Test to examine whether it is statistically different from zero. The results support the hypothesis：Under the condition of poor socialization, the stronger the deprivation of the needed resources that could not be satisfied through legal means, the availability of a suitable target, the absence of capable guardians and if the estimated probability of clearance is low, the higher the probability of committing a criminal act would be.