CPFR流程下的補貨模型

Abstract

協同規劃、預測與補貨﹙Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment; CPFR﹚是協同商務中的一個應用實務，主要強調供應鏈上買賣雙方協同合作流程的概念，以提升供應鏈上流程的處理效率。未來企業的競爭將是產品背後整體供應鏈的激烈競爭，能對於不斷變化的市場需求作出有效預測，進而快速反應的企業將脫穎而出。對於庫存與補貨的掌控能力更將是企業決勝的關鍵因素之一。\r\nCPFR 中的補貨模型是根據銷售預測、訂單預測、存貨策略與供給面資訊來做實際訂單，以作為補貨之用。補貨模式的準確性可以使賣方針對不同的需求來有效分配未來訂單預測的需求量，並降低安全庫存；買方則可根據訂單預測來調整庫存策略與採購數量。\r\n現今廣用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）並沒有像CPFR加入更多的協同項目與精神，因此比較VMI與CPFR的補貨流程的差異性與優劣性，進而提供企業導入CPFR的補貨流程是相當重要的。\r\n本研究以補貨階段為主題，除了探討協同補貨模式所需具備的屬性與輸入變數外，更將建構一個整合供應鏈上、下游協同資訊與符合協同訂單預測特性之預測模型，以提升補貨準確度，進而堆砌出整個CPFR 協同補貨模式，並加以與現今企業廣為採用的供應商管理存貨（Vendor Managed Inventory, VMI）的補貨模式進行比較，證明CPFR優於VMI，進而可供欲導入CPFR 流程下協同補貨模式或一般補貨模式的相關人員之參考。

CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success.\r\nThe replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction.\r\nA few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important. \r\nThe phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.