The Quartet Road Map: A Study on its Solutions to Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Abstract

自十九世紀中葉，猶太人第一次遷徙到巴勒斯坦，已經過一百五十餘年。猶太民族與世居巴勒斯坦的阿拉伯人，原本還算和睦相處。惟隨著歐洲民族主義的復興，猶太人在受到歐洲人迫害後，亦隨之興起在巴勒斯坦建國的思想。猶太復國主義崛起（Zionism），巴勒斯坦的歷史，從此展開了新頁。\r\n猶太人自廿世紀第二次遷徙至巴勒斯坦後，採取激進的屯墾措施，以巧取豪奪的方法自巴人手中不斷取得土地，擴大版圖，排除在佃地世代務農的巴勒斯坦農民，改僱猶太人，造成佃農生活難以為繼，紛爭於是展開，難以平息，逐漸惡化成衝突，最後導至1936年巴人大規模反抗行動，以巴衝突正式展開，直至二十一世紀。\r\n本論文從歷史發展的脈絡來分析四方路徑圖所提出的解決方案，首先研究自1948至1990年來，在以色列佔領下，以巴衝突的特質（第二章）。其次研究自1991至2002年，第一次巴勒斯坦人民起義後，奧斯陸原則宣言至美國大衛營談判破裂，以巴雙方在終止占領、建立自治政府、移轉權力、交還土地(包含屯墾區)等四方面的履行的情形，來觀察以色列在締結和平協定背後的戰略意圖（第三章）。再研究第二次巴勒斯坦人民起義後，由美國領導，歐盟、俄羅斯及聯合國四方共同參與的四方路徑圖，其所提出的兩國方案，是否可以消弭以巴衝突，從而建立雙方和平。其中值得注意的是以色列所採取的兩手策略：─面進行和平談判，一面準備單方隔離計畫。並對路徑圖未來可能的發展提出看法（第四章）。\r\n最後的結論是四方路徑圖所提出的兩國方案似難解決以巴間長期衝突，而達成和平，將來可能的發展是一國方案（第五章）。

In mid-nineteenth century, the first wave (aliyah) of Jews started to immigrate to Palestine. Jewish immigrants and indigenous Palestinians were getting along peacefully in Palestine at the outset. But after a spate of nationalism rose in Europe, Jews became the persecuted. Political Zionism thrived among Jews, which initiated the idea of building their own state in Palestine. A new chapter in the history of Palestine was written.\r\nJewish immigrants to Palestine since the second aliyah were much more progressive. They were particularly interested in establishing a Jewish state and hoped to create Jewish settlements independently worked by Jewish farm laborers. This land buying policy led to tensions with Palestinian peasants, who were unable to find work among the new immigrant communities. Numerous land disputes deteriorated into tension between the two communities, as more Palestinians were displaced by Jewish land buying policy. Unemployed Palestinians became increasingly hostile towards the Zionists. At last, the first Arab revolt burst out in 1936. From there, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict began and has continued into the 21st century.\r\nThe thesis analyses the solutions of the Road Map to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the context of history. It studies first the characteristics of the conflict from 1948 to 1990 (Chapter One). Then, it observes the past record of the peace process from 1991 to 2002 by the two sides through implementations of DOP, until the collapse of the Camp David Talks that caused the second intifada. By reviewing the past record of peace in contrast with its implementations regarding ending Israeli occupation, building a Palestinian self-government (PNA), transfer of powers and land (including Israeli settlements) to the PNA, one is able to realize the Israeli strategic intentions hidden behind those peace agreements (Chapter Three). Next, the thesis studies the two-state formula proposed by the US-led Quartet Road Map (the US, the EU, Russia and the UN), to understand its feasibility to solve the second intifada and build peace. It should be noted that Israel took a two-handed strategy: preparing for a disengagement plan while negotiating for peace. An appraisal of the future prospect of the Road Map is included in this chapter (Chapter Four).\r\nThe conclusion of the thesis is that the Quartet Road Map could not solve the prolonged Israeli-Palestinian conflict and reach a sustained peace between the two peoples. Future development of the conflict may result in a one-state solution (Chapter Five).