兩岸分治狀態下的台灣經濟安全問題

Abstract

台海兩岸之間的經貿往來始於1979年大陸當局發表「告台灣同胞書」。隨著全球經濟整合的推進，以及兩岸各自的經濟發展，台灣與中國大陸之間的經貿往來日益頻繁。但是，台海兩岸之間也同時存在著嚴重的不信任感，中國質疑台灣領導人對台灣主權的路線，台灣則對中國當局不願意放棄武力犯台感到嚴重威脅。在雙方缺乏互信的情況下，政治的交流非常不易，這種政經截然不同路線發展的現象，在今日的國際關係中誠屬罕見。為了探究中國大陸是否會對台灣採取經濟制裁的行為，本研究先從「兩岸經貿政策演變過程」及「台商赴中國大陸投資」兩方面觀察其對台灣經濟發展產生之影響，之後再使用文獻分析法分析兩岸經貿互動及台商西進大陸投資的概況，並瞭解對台灣經濟的影響，進而推論對台灣經濟安全威脅的可能性。最後研究發現，兩岸的經貿政策加速台商西進並在地化，台商赴中國大陸投資對台灣經濟發展產生之影響，除了幫助部分產業達到升級的益處，但也造成部分產業空洞化的後果，而兩岸分工的狀態，使兩岸經濟在世界經濟體系裡更融合。中國大陸不至於對台灣整體經濟進行制裁，僅會對部分台商施予手段，以促進兩岸統一的進展，不過作用不大。但是這些手段長期下來，是否會影響台灣在政治上的讓步，還需要觀察。研究最後，筆者提出幾項政策建議，在積極開放方面，台灣政府應持續開放兩岸經貿往來、掌握推動兩岸直航時機、導引中國大陸台商資金回流。有效管理方面，台灣政府應審慎開放台商回台籌資，.落實執行「積極開放、有效管理」政策，同時積極主導協商議題，促成簽訂兩岸交流之相關協定，並對台海安全問題進行合作，創造兩岸和平環境。

The economic and trade contacts between two sides of the Taiwan Straits started in 1979. Affected by global economy, and one`s own economic development of two sides, the economic and trade contacts between Taiwan and Mainland China are more and more frequent. However, there is a serious distrust between two sides of the Taiwan Straits at the same time. China queries the Taiwanese leader’s route of the sovereignty of Taiwan, while Taiwan feels threatened because Mainland China is unwilling to give up the military force to unify two sides. The phenomenon that the completely different route of this kind of political and economy develops between two political subjects is rare in the world. In order to probe into that if Mainland China will adopt economic sanction to force Taiwan to be part of Mainland China, I started from the following parts: “the development of two sides’ economic and trade policy develop” and “the affection of investment of Taiwan trader going to Mainland China”. Finally, my conclusion is that economic and trade policies of two sides accelerate Taiwanese traders invest more and more in China. The investment of Taiwanese traders going to Mainland China influence Taiwan in the following ways: helping some industries to upgrade, but emptying some other industries. Mainland China is unlikely to impose sanction to Taiwan, but will bestow some benefits to some Taiwan traders, in order to promote the progress of reunification of the two sides of the Straits. At the end of this study, I proposed several policy recommendations. In opening actively, Taiwanese government should make two sides` economic and trade contacts continuously, promote the direct navigation between two sides, and set up Taiwanese traders’ fund backseting conscientiously. In eaffective management, the Taiwanese government should have a comprehensive set of rules to control the economic and trade contacts between two sides of the Straits, to safe Taiwan.