冷戰後中國石油能源需求與國家安全之研究－以地緣政治觀點分析

Abstract

從1986年起，因為經濟大幅成長，中國的石油需求也隨之增加，但是中國國內的石油生產卻開始下降。進入後冷戰時期，中國的石油供給更已無法自給自足，成為仰賴石油進口的國家。透過傳統現實主義理論對石油安全進行討論，我們可以得知，石油不僅僅牽涉到經濟的發展，也牽涉到國力的強弱與否。因此，石油對於一個國家在國際政治的地位或是經濟發展上都扮演了十分重要的角色，中國也因而必須考量石油對於國家安全的影響。本研究即自地緣政治觀點，分析中國石油能源與國家安全。\r\n 中國目前建構的石油安全體系，是以國內的石油化學產業的改革為基礎，以石油化學產業為工具，建構取得油源的石油外交體系，同時積極分散油源。由中國所規劃的中南半島輸油路線，中巴、中孟輸油路線，以及已經開始建設的中俄、中哈輸油路線都是以分散石油運輸路線為目標。運輸路線的規劃就是以地緣政治為出發點考量，透過與周邊國的關係建構石油運輸。\r\n 然而，儘管中國積極推動分散油源、油路的石油安全戰略，卻也牽涉到各強國在各地區的利益問題，以及各地區內部的政治、經濟、族群、宗教等問題。例如中東內部有以阿衝突、反美等問題，非洲的新興油源國、中亞各國內部都有因為宗教、政治導致的問題，而美、俄、日、印等大國與中國也在各地有所利益衝突，即使中國與俄羅斯有合作關係，卻也在中亞地區有利益競爭的關係。所以不僅中國與各強國之間有合作也有競爭外，也必須面對各個地區內部的各種問題。

Since 1986, China’s demands for petroleum had increased extensively with the significant growth of economy, but the domestic production of petroleum decreased relatively. In the post-Cold War period, China was non-self-sufficient on supplying petroleum, and became a state which depending on importing petroleum thereout. By the discussion on the security of petroleum with the theory of traditional realism, we can conclude that the petroleum doesn’t only concern the development of economy but also concern the strength of nations. Therefore, we can see that petroleum plays an important role both on the status of international politics and the development of economy, and China must concern the influence of petroleum to national security thereof. Then, the proposal of this thesis is to analyse the relationship between supplies and demands of petroleum and the national security of China with the view of geo-politics.\r\n The petroleum security system of China was framed on the basis of the revolution of domestic petroleum chemical industry, so as to frame her petroleum diplomacy system to acquire the petroleum, and decentralize the sources of petroleum meanwhile. The oil pipeline ways set up by China was formulated according to the goal of decentralizing the pipeline of petroleum, such as Medium South Peninsula pipeline, China-Pakistan pipeline, China-Bengal pipeline, China-Russia pipeline, and the China- Kazakhstan pipeline. Therefore, we can conclude that China set up its oil pipeline by establishimg the relations with surrounding nations which concerning geo-politics.\r\n However, the strategies of petroleum security that decentralizing oil pipelines and petroleum sources was involved with the conflicts of interests among powerful nations in all areas, including the conflicts of politics, economy, race, and religion. For examples, there are conflicts between Israel and Palestine, and anti-American issue in Middle-East area. There are conflicts among the nations in middle Asia which caused by religion and politics. And there are conflicts of interests among USA, Russia, Japan, Indian and China all over the world. So does China conflict with Russia in middle Asia, even though there is a cooperative relation between them. In general, China does not only cooperate with other powerful nations but also contend against them. Furthermore, China has to face the conflicts and issues caused in every area when she promotes the strategy of petroleum security.