兩岸關係中台灣戰略價值之研究─以地緣角度分析

Abstract

一個國家的政府，無論其規模大小，必會具有地方性層次的思考；當一國追求在其週邊區域上更具影響力時，並成為區域的強權，則以地區性層次的考量來決定國家安全政策制定；而少數能在國際政治影響力的國家，其政府有其專屬的世界地緣政治觀，其是以全球的角度來制定其國家戰略。本文所研究的核心目的是兩岸關係中台灣的戰略價值。\r\n 二戰後國際局勢丕變，各國戰略利益縱橫交錯，不是單存的地緣關係，而是多從性質的政治、經濟和軍事利益的制約與聯合，因此地緣戰略在整個國家戰略中的地位日益重要。\r\n 台灣是亞洲地緣戰略的重要部分，在兩岸關係與各國的利益關係影響極大。正因為台灣處在這東亞第一島鏈的戰略要衝上，其戰略價值的重要性是不可言喻，就中國而言，掌控台灣，則中國海防無憂，失去台灣，則中國戰略縱深將縮數百公里，對其政治、經濟及軍事上均有深層的影響；另外，對美、日等東亞地區大國國家利益影響亦有一定的衝擊。總的來說「台海兩岸未來關係的重大變數，使得台灣問題變得不僅更難處理，甚至還會為東亞地區帶來動盪不安的局勢」。\r\n 學生試圖從兩岸關係的地緣的角度來分析台灣的政治、經濟及軍事的戰略價值，並探究在全球化的發展下，台灣將會面臨什麼樣的地緣戰略？為了台灣的國家安全、生存與利益，要如何作為？及台灣的戰略價值對兩岸關係中的另一個主角─中共未來發展會有什麼影響？則是個\r\n人研究的規劃與方向。

Regardless of its scale, a government must have the ability to process consideration on local issues when making different kinds of national strategies. When a country pursues its power on marginal areas to become regional authority, it usually makes its national security policies based on local considerations. For the very few nations that have certain power on international politics, their governments have their specific viewpoints of international geographic politics, which is that they make their national strategies based on international viewpoints. This study aims to discuss the core value of Taiwan in cross-Strait relations.\r\nAfter World War II, each country share strategic interests with different countries. Relations between countries are not confined to neighbors anymore. They have become multiple restrictions and alliance in terms of politics, economy, and military. Therefore, geographic strategies have become more and more important in a country’s national strategies.\r\n In terms of geographic strategy, Taiwan is an important part in Asia. It has a great influence on cross-Strait relations and the interests of different countries. Because Taiwan is located at the major juncture on the First Island Chain in East Asia, its importance and strategic values are of no doubt. To China, controlling Taiwan means no worries about treads from the Strait. However, losing Taiwan means that China’s strategic depth would be hundreds of miles shorter, which would cause great influences on its politics, economy, and military. Moreover, it would also cause great impacts on the interests of the United States and some powerful countries in East Asia like Japan. To sum up, the great variability in the relations between the two sides of the Strait has made Taiwan issue tougher to manage. It is even possible to cause instability in East Asia area.\r\n In this study, I attempt to analyze Taiwan’s strategic values in terms of politics, economy, and military from the angle of geographic relations of the two sides of the Strait, and to discuss the geographic strategies that Taiwan might face with the development of globalization. Specifically, I aim to discuss how Taiwan should react to all these challenges in order to ensure national security and interests, and what the effects are that the strategic values of Taiwan have on the future development of China.