1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. 社會科學學院
  3. 經濟學系
  4. 學位論文
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32241
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.advisor沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author陳書偉zh_TW
dc.creator陳書偉zh_TW
dc.date2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-09-14T05:29:21Z-
dc.date.available2009-09-14T05:29:21Z-
dc.date.issued2009-09-14T05:29:21Z-
dc.identifierG0094258021en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32241-
dc.description碩士zh_TW
dc.description國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description94258021zh_TW
dc.description95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract本文參照前人學者實證研究中所選取之財務比率變數，其中包含經營效率、獲利性、償債能力等構面中所選取財務比率變數共17個，另加入董事會特性、股權結構、參與管理等構面之公司治理變數共13個治理變數，以及納入盈餘管理變數與相關控制變數分別建構3個財務預警模型，並將會計資訊變數的資料型態依Platt(1990)之概念分為兩種，用意在分別比較原比率型態之預警模型與相對比率型態之預警模型之差異，樣本公司抽樣於2002年至2005年間，以TEJ資料庫認定為財務危機之企業，從中抽取跨產業41家財務危機之樣本企業，以1：2之比率抽取資產總額相近之82家正常企業樣本，總樣本數為123家樣本公司，實證結果顯示在財務危機發生前一、二年度，整體而言相對比率之預警模型預測能力與類比解釋能力相對優於一般原比率之財務預警模型，而盈餘管理變數確實能提高模型預測準確率，在越接近財務危機發生之時間點，其效果較為顯著，尤其相對比率之盈餘管理變數優於原比率之盈餘管理變數，再者公司治理變數之加入，亦同樣對模型之區別能力有所幫助，總和而言同時加入會計資訊變數、盈餘管理變數與公司治理變數之相對比率預警模型，是為本文所建預警模型中最佳效率之預警模型。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1\r\n第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………4\r\n第三章 研究方法………………………………………………………24\r\n第四章 統計分析與實證結果…………………………………………40\r\n第五章 結論……………………………………………………………69\r\n參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………71\r\n附錄一 ……………………………………………………………………76zh_TW
dc.language.isoen_US-
dc.source.urihttp://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258021en_US
dc.subject公司治理zh_TW
dc.subject盈餘管理zh_TW
dc.subject預警模型zh_TW
dc.subject因素分析zh_TW
dc.subjectlogistic迴歸分析zh_TW
dc.title以公司治理、相對盈餘管理與財務比率建構企業預警模型zh_TW
dc.typethesisen
dc.relation.reference一、國內文獻：zh_TW
dc.relation.reference1. 彭筱倩 (2004)，「盈餘管理與公司治理變數關聯性研究—以我國財務危機公司為例」，政治大學會計學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference2. 林裕雄 (1996)，「列入全額交割股上市公司盈餘管理之實證研究」，中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference3. 林文修 (2000)，「演化式類神經網路為基底的企業危機診斷模型：智慧資本之應用」，中央大學資訊管理學系博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference4. 林雅淑 (2003)，「股權結構與盈餘管理關聯性研究」，中央大學企業管理研究所財管組碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference5. 林有志、廖宜鋒 (2006)，「提前採用資產減損公報之公司特性與盈餘管理動機」，文大商管學報，第11卷，第1期，頁11-28。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference6. 黃宏志（1992），「銀行放款信用評估模型之研究—以臺灣地區電工器材業為對象」，淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference7. 黃建華 (2006)，「加入公司治理變數建構台灣上市上櫃公司之財務危機預警模型」，東吳大學國際貿易學系國際貿易金融組碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference8. 黃正耀 (2004)，「公司治理與盈餘管理之關聯性研究-以國內特定上市櫃公司為例」，政治大學會計學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference9. 黃旭輝 (2006)，「經理人異動與股東財富效果」，管理評論，第25卷，第1期，頁23-45。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference10. 謝劍平 (2006)，「財務報表分析」，智勝文化出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference11. 謝宇泰 (1995)，「獨立董監事特性與盈餘管理之關聯性研究」，成功大學會計學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference12. 張瑞當、方俊儒 (2006)，「資訊揭露評鑑系統對企業盈餘管理行為之影響」，會計評論，第42期，頁1-22。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference13. 朱延智 (2005)，「財務危機管理」，五南圖書出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference14. 沈中華、陳錦村、吳孟紋 (2005)，「更早期預警模型：台灣銀行道德指標的建立與影響」，管理學報，第22卷，第1期，頁1-28。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference15. 沈中華、池祥麟 (2003)，「從投資人保護觀點與展望理論探討各國銀行業盈餘管理之現象與動機」，經濟論文，第31卷，第3期，頁407-458。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference16. 沈中華、張雲翔 (2002)，「金融機構跨業經營及轉投資之利潤與風險：全球實證分析」，經濟論文，第30卷，第3期，頁275-301。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference17. 沈中華 (2002)，「銀行治理、銀行失敗與銀行績效：以台灣為例」，亞太經濟管理評論，第6卷，第1期，頁27-46。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference18. 沈中華、林公韻 (2005)，「信用違約機率之預測—Robust Logistic Regression」，台灣財務金融季刊，第13卷，第3期，頁1-32。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference19. 陳美華、洪世炳 (2005)，「公司治理、股權結構與公司績效關係之實證研究」企業管理學報，第65期，頁129-153。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference20. 陳肇榮 (1983)，「運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實證研究」，政治大學企業管理研究所未出版博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference21. 陳明賢 (1986)，「財務危機預測之計量分析研究」，台灣大學商學院研究所未出版碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference22. 陳順宇 (2005)，「多變量分析」，華泰文化出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference23. 陳志銘 (2006)，「以產業相對比率建立企業預警模型—考量公司治理因素」，政治大學財政學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference24. 曾素娟 (1999)，「考量景氣波動之企業財務預警」，成大企業管理學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference25. 蘇文娟 (2000)，「台灣上市企業財務危機預測之實證研究」，東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference26. 歐再添（2002），「企業財務危機預測—以產業別建構Logistic預警模型」，臺灣科技大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference27. 葉銀華、李存修、柯承恩（2002），「公司治理與評等系統」，智商文化出版。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference28. 王濟川、郭世剛 (2002），「Logistic迴歸模型方法與應用」，五南圖書出版社。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference29. 王健安 (2002)，「公司治理的模式與評估」，台灣金融財報季刊，第3卷，第3期，頁159-87。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference30. 王克陸、包曉天 (2002)，「企業轉投資與其系統風險關係之研究—台灣紡織業與電子業之比較」，中華管理學報，第3卷，第2期，頁65-74。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference二、國外文獻：zh_TW
dc.relation.reference1. Aziz, M. A. and Dar, H. A. (2006), “Predicting corporate bankruptcy: where we stand ?”, Corporate Governance, pp. 18-33zh_TW
dc.relation.reference2. Altman, E. I. (1968), “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, Journal of Finance, Vol. l.23, pp. 589-609zh_TW
dc.relation.reference3. Altman, E.I., Haldeman, R.G. and Narayanan, P. (1977), “ZETA Analysis: a model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporation”, Journal of Banking and Finance, pp. 29-54zh_TW
dc.relation.reference4. Beaver, W. H. (1966), “Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 4, pp. 71-102zh_TW
dc.relation.reference5. Beynon, M. J. and Peel, M. J. (2001), “Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction”, Omega, Vol. 29, pp. 561-76zh_TW
dc.relation.reference6. Daily, C. M. and Daton, D. R. (1994), “Bankruptcy and Corporate Governance: The impact of board composition and structure”, Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 37, NO. 6, pp. 1603-17zh_TW
dc.relation.reference7. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. and Sweeney, A. P. (1995), “Detecting Earnings Management”, The Accounting Review, Vol. 70, pp.193-225zh_TW
dc.relation.reference8. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. and Sweeney, A. P. (1996), “Cause and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firm Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC”, Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 1-36zh_TW
dc.relation.reference9. DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L. and Skinner, D. J. (1994), “Accounting choice in troubled companies”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 113-43zh_TW
dc.relation.reference10. Dimitras, A. I., Slowinski, R., Susmaga, R. and Zopounidis, C. (1999), “ Business failure prediction using rough sets.”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 114, pp. 263-80zh_TW
dc.relation.reference11. Elloumi, F. and Gueyie, J. P. (2001), “Financial Distress and Corporate Governance: An empirical analysis”, Corporate Governance, Vol. 1, NO. 1, pp. 15-23zh_TW
dc.relation.reference12. Gujarati, D. N. (1995), 「Basic Econometrics」, McGraw-Hill, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference13. Gompers, P., Ishii, J. and Metrick, A., (2001) “Corporate Governance and Equity Prices”, NBER Working paper, No. 8449.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference14. Healy, P. M. and Wahlem, J. M. (1998), “A review of the earnings management literature and its implication for standard setting”, Harvard Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference15. Kahya, E. and Theodossiou, P. (1999), “Predicting corporate financial distress: a time-series CUSUM methodology”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Vol. 13, pp. 323-45zh_TW
dc.relation.reference16. Kallunki, J. P. and Martikainen, T. (1999), “Financial failure and managers’ accounting responses: Finnish evidence”, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Vol. 9, pp. 15-26zh_TW
dc.relation.reference17. Klein, A. (2002), “Audit committee, board of director characteristics, and earnings management”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 33, pp. 375-400zh_TW
dc.relation.reference18. Foreman, R. D. (2003), “A logistic analysis of bankruptcy within the US local telecommunications industry”, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 55, pp. 135-66zh_TW
dc.relation.reference19. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., and Shleifer, A. (1999), “Corporate Ownership around the World”, Journal of finance, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 471-517zh_TW
dc.relation.reference20. Laitinen, E. K. and Laitinen, T. (1998), “Cash Management Behavior and Failure Prediction”, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, Vol. 13, pp. 323-45zh_TW
dc.relation.reference21. Lemmon, M. L. and Lins, K. V. (2003), “Ownership Structure, Corporate Governance, and Firm Value: Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp. 1445-68zh_TW
dc.relation.reference22. Lee, T. S. and Yeh, Y. H. (2004), “Corporate Governance and Financial Distress: evidence form Taiwan”, Corporate Governance, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 378-88zh_TW
dc.relation.reference23. Jensen, M. C. and Meckling, W. H. (1976), “Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency cost and ownership structure”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 305-60zh_TW
dc.relation.reference24. Jensen, M. C. and Ruback, R. (1983), “The market for corporate control: The scientific evidence”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 11, pp. 5-50zh_TW
dc.relation.reference25. Jensen, M. C. (1993), “The modern industrial revolution, exit, and the failure of internal control system”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 831-80zh_TW
dc.relation.reference26. Jones, J. J. (1991), “Earnings management during import relief investigation”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 193-228zh_TW
dc.relation.reference27. McGurr, P. T. and DeVaney, S. A. (1998), “Predicting Business Failure of Retail Firms - An Analysis Using Mixed Industry Models”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 43, pp. 169-76zh_TW
dc.relation.reference28. McKinsey & Company, June 2000,”Investor Opinion Survey”zh_TW
dc.relation.reference29. Ohlson, J. A. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probablistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 109-31zh_TW
dc.relation.reference30. Platt, H. D. and Platt, M. B. (1990), “Development of a class of stable predictive variables: the case of bankruptcy prediction”, Journal of Banking, Finance and Accounting, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 31-51zh_TW
dc.relation.reference31. Pochet, C. (2002), “Institutional Complementarities within Corporate Governance Systems: A Comparative Study of Bankruptcy Rules”, Journal of Management and Governance, Vol. 6, pp. 343-81zh_TW
dc.relation.reference32. Shin, K. S. and Lee, Y. J. (2002), “A genetic algorithm application in bankruptcy prediction modeling”, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 321-29zh_TW
dc.relation.reference33. Teoh, S. H., Welch, I. and Wong, T. J. (1998), “Earnings Management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 50, pp. 63-99zh_TW
dc.relation.reference34. Xie, B. and Davidson, W. N. (2003), “Earnings management and corporate governance: the role of the board and the audit committee”, Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 9, pp. 295-316zh_TW
dc.relation.reference35. Yang, Z. R., Platt, M. B. and Platt, H. D. (1999), “Probabilistic neural networks in bankruptcy prediction”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 44, pp. 67-74zh_TW
dc.relation.reference36. Yeh, Y. H., Lee, T. S. and Woidtke, T. (2001), “Family Control and Corporate Governance Evidence for Taiwan”, International Review of Finance, Vol. 2, pp. 21-48zh_TW
dc.relation.reference37. Yeh, Y. H., Ko, C. E. and Su, Y. H. (2003), “Ultimate Control and Expropriation of Minority Shareholders: New Evidence from Taiwan”, Academia Economic Papers, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 263-99zh_TW
dc.relation.reference38. Yermack, D. (1996), “Higher market valuation of companies with a small board of directors”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 40, pp. 185-211zh_TW
item.languageiso639-1en_US-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_46ec-
item.openairetypethesis-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.grantfulltextopen-
Appears in Collections:學位論文
Files in This Item:
File SizeFormat
index.html115 BHTML2View/Open
Show simple item record

Google ScholarTM

Check


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.