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Title: 人口結構與民間消費
Demographic Structure and Private Consumption in Taiwan
Authors: 范芝萍
Fan, Chih Ping
Contributors: 吳中書
Wu, Chung Shu
Fan, Chih Ping
Keywords: 人口結構
Date: 2007
Issue Date: 2009-09-14 13:31:37 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本論文主要以總體時間序列資料與世代資料來探討人口結構與消費及其組成的關聯性。在總體時間數列資料方面,根據一般動差法的估計結果顯示,扶老比和扶幼比與民間消費比率具有正向關聯性,且扶老比對消費比率的推升效果要較扶幼比來得大與顯著。在十二類消費比率中,除娛樂消遣與教育消費比率的估計結果不具顯著性外,其他十一項消費比率與人口結構具顯著關聯性。此外,並無充分證據顯示逐年下滑的扶幼比與逐年走高的扶老比是造成我國民間消費比率相對平穩的主要原因。在世代資料方面,根據近似無關之迴歸聯立估計結果顯示,家庭消費組成中,除飲料與房租及水費支出外,戶內14歲以下幼年人口或65歲以上老年人口對其餘類別消費組成均具有顯著的影響,其效果與方向則依各支出類別而異。整體而言,依賴人口的確可作為影響家庭消費組成決策的重要因素之一,但戶內依賴人口對家庭總消費的影響則不具統計上的顯著性。
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