Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32275
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.advisor | 鍾經樊 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.advisor | Chung,Ching-Fan | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | 蔡郁敏 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author | Tsai,Yu-Min | en_US |
dc.creator | 蔡郁敏 | zh_TW |
dc.creator | Tsai,Yu-Min | en_US |
dc.date | 2004 | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-09-14T05:33:30Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-09-14T05:33:30Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009-09-14T05:33:30Z | - |
dc.identifier | G0922580271 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32275 | - |
dc.description | 碩士 | zh_TW |
dc.description | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
dc.description | 經濟研究所 | zh_TW |
dc.description | 92258027 | zh_TW |
dc.description | 93 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | 追求長期穩定的經濟成長是每個國家欲追求的目標,在經濟發展過程中,外在衝擊常常導致經濟體系的景氣循環波動,而短期間景氣循環的大幅波動將不利於經濟體系穩定發展,因為民眾的消費、廠商的投資決策以及政府政策的規劃與實施,都深深受到景氣變動的影響。因此準確預測景氣動向,深受經濟學者、政府以及一般民眾的重視。\r\n 預估景氣循環擴張和衰退持續期間的長短並不容易,由美國國家經濟研究局 提供的資料得知,第二次世界大戰後,美國景氣擴張最長的時間,曾經延續了一百零六個月,而最短的則只有十二個月;在景氣衰退方面,最短是六個月,最長則為十六個月。而二次大戰前,時間變化的幅度就更大了。由於景氣變化前的徵兆並不是很顯著,因此許多經濟學者從各種方面來探討與分析景氣循環。\r\n 本篇論文引用 ordered Probit 模型對 Dueker (2005) 文章作一個擴展與應用,將Dueker文中原本的二分類:景氣衰退、景氣擴張延伸為景氣三分類:景氣衰退、景氣狀態不明與景氣擴張,帶入 Qual VAR 模型並利用Gibbs sampling模擬未知參數與變數,藉由統計分析,希望能對景氣循環提出一個更為詳細的詮釋。而本篇論文的目的希望在相對於二分類模型,在總體現象上能提供一個更為完善與更明確的描述,使得在分析上能更完整。參考 NBER 所公佈的景氣轉折點並輔以其他指標,將景氣區分為三分類,以 Qual VAR 模型模擬出景氣三分類的景氣指標,再對這個指標做預測分析,並比較美國景氣在二分類與三分類之下的異同。結果指出三分類模型成功的預測出 2002 年第一季到 2003 年第三季美國景氣擴張的狀態,而三選擇模型的模型比起二選擇模型,對於預測景氣狀態有更為明確的判斷,且加入一分類指標,提供新的景氣變動解釋,幫助人們做出更為合適的決策。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 1 序論\r\n1\r\n2 文獻回顧 3\r\n 2.1 線性時間序列模型 3\r\n 2.2 Probit 模型結合時間序列模型 4\r\n3 研究方法 7\r\n 3.1 Probit 模型的設定 7\r\n 3.1.1 Probit 模型的抽樣模擬 8\r\n 3.2 Ordered Probit 模型 12\r\n 3.3 VAR模型 14\r\n 3.3.1 VAR 模型的設定 15\r\n 3.2.2 VAR 模型的階數決定 16\r\n 3.4結構型 VAR 模型 17\r\n 3.4.1 衝擊反應分析 18\r\n 3.4.2 格蘭傑因果檢定 18\r\n 3.5 Qual VAR模型 (Dueker) 19\r\n 3.6三分類Qual VAR模型 20\r\n 3.6.1 三分類 Qual VAR 模型設定 20\r\n 3.6.2 三分類 Qual VAR 模型參數與變數事後分配 21\r\n 3.7馬可夫鍊蒙地卡羅 23\r\n 3.8景氣三分類 25\r\n 3.8.1 分類方式 26\r\n 3.8.2 分類結果分析 28\r\n4 實證分析 30\r\n 4.1資料 30\r\n 4.2實證操作 31\r\n 4.3實證結果分析 31\r\n 4.3.1 衝擊反應分析 32\r\n 4.3.2 格蘭傑因果檢定分析 35\r\n 4.3.3 景氣指標的預測分析 38\r\n5 結論 42\r\n附表\r\n 表1:景氣循環轉折點表 44\r\n 表2:指標分類法 45\r\n 表3:階數判斷準則表 49\r\n 表4:Qual VAR 模型參數表 50\r\n 表5:SVAR 模型同期內生變數係數矩陣比較表 51\r\n 表6:格蘭傑因果檢定表 52\r\n 表7:機率預測結果與景氣三分類結果比較表 53\r\n 表8:景氣指標預測值與機率預測結果之比較表 54\r\n 表9:景氣機率預測比較表 55\r\n附圖\r\n 圖1:景氣指標的模擬值與預測值 56\r\n 圖2:景氣指標的衝擊反應圖 57\r\n 圖3:實值國內生產毛額成長率的衝擊反應圖 58\r\n 圖4:景氣指標在80%機率區間的樣本外預測 59\r\n參考文獻 60 | zh_TW |
dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
dc.source.uri | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922580271 | en_US |
dc.subject | 景氣循環 | zh_TW |
dc.subject | 屬質變數 | zh_TW |
dc.subject | Qual VAR | en_US |
dc.subject | Gibbs sampling | en_US |
dc.subject | Probit Model | en_US |
dc.title | 三分類Qual VAR模型-美國景氣預測之應用 | zh_TW |
dc.type | thesis | en |
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dc.relation.reference | Blandchard, O.J. (1981), “What Is Left of The Multiplier-Accelerator?,” American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 71, 150-154. | zh_TW |
dc.relation.reference | Dueker, M. (1997), “Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 79(2), 41-50. | zh_TW |
dc.relation.reference | Dueker, M. (1999), “Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 17, 466-472. | zh_TW |
dc.relation.reference | Dueker, M. (2005), “Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23, 96-104. | zh_TW |
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dc.relation.reference | Griffiths, W.E., Hill, R.C., and Pope, P.J. (1987), “Small Sample Properties of Probit Model Estimators,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 929-937. | zh_TW |
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item.openairetype | thesis | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_46ec | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en_US | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
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