能源因素在中國對外政策所扮演的角色

Abstract

在1993年中國成為石油淨進口國後，年消費量不斷擴大，產量卻無法大幅提升，石油供給不足的缺口正逐步擴大，且依國際能源總署評估，中國將是未來世界能源爭奪上的關鍵國家。 能源因素從1993年以來逐步地成為中國外交方面的思考。中國在處理外交事務越來越重視能源問題。在21世紀的石油價格不斷提升的趨勢對中國經濟造成相當大的衝擊，一旦能源供應短缺，享受經濟快速發展的中國面將臨極大的危險。另外在軍事力量加強的同時中國需要建立石油儲備來因應軍事行動之所需。 \n從外交戰略而言，中國處於亞洲中心，東接太平洋，西與中亞產油地區接壤，南出巴基斯坦，具備非常有利的地緣戰略優勢。中國需藉助有利的地緣戰略位置，在不流血的「石油戰爭」中儘早規劃以為因應，方不致遭受其它國家的戰略的箝制。\n因此，本論文的研究目的在於以1993年至2006年能源因素影響中國外交政策和計劃的追蹤資料，搭配政治分析法， 探討以下問題： 一，分析預測將來中國能源方面的需求趨勢；二，探究能源需求促使中國政府採取何種外交手段。三，在中國外交決策中能源因素扮演何種的決定因素。

Since 1993, China has become an importer of oil; the oil consumption has been growing. At the same time, China couldn’t increase the oil production, as the result, the lack of oil supplying has continuously increased. If we analyze from the point of international resource consumption, China comes to be the key country between those, who will struggle for the energy resources in the future. Since 1993, energy factor has been implemented to the consideration in the Chinese diplomacy. China has started to pay more and more attention to the energy factor while dealing with its international affairs. In 21 century, the oil price has been increasingly rising, that has become a serious danger for Chinese economy. The sudden lack of energy resources will be the great threat for fast developing Chinese economy. Also, been increasing its military power, China needs to create strategic oil stocks in order to move effectively its military forces. \nIf we consider from strategic point of view, China is in the center of Asia, with Pacific Ocean on its East Coast, bordering with Pakistan on the South, China has very favorable geographical strategic advantages. China needs to use its strategic position for early planning strategy in its “non-blood war” for oil resources. Otherwise, China will face containment from the other countries. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate the following issues based upon the date for the influence of energy factor on Chinese foreign policy and intentions during the period of 1993-2006: 1.Understanding the trends for the future growth of energy demand in China. 2.Investigating what kind of measures can be applying by Chinese government in the face of these trends. 3.Figuring out how big the role of energy factor in the Chinese foreign policy implementation.