Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35778


Title: 利率指標與不確定政策宣示
Interest Rate Targeting and Announced Policy with Uncertainty
Authors: 林鴻文
Lin,Hung Wen
Contributors: 賴景昌
Lai,Ching-Chong
林鴻文
Lin,Hung Wen
Keywords: 利率指標
不確定政策
宣示效果
Date: 2006
Issue Date: 2009-09-18 16:00:07 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文擬以Fleming(1962)模型作為本文的理論架構,並延續張文雅、溫學華與賴景昌(1994)對於不確定政策變動的研究,釋放完全預知的強烈假定,討論「利率調幅不確定」的貨幣政策,並加入「名目利率指標」設定。本文明確地指出在央行實施不確定性貨幣政策的期間,民眾修正預期利率的結果,將導致匯率和產出之預期動態調整路徑,與經濟體系真實動態路徑不會有完全重合的可能性。本文此一結論,與上述文獻認為預期與實際調整路徑完全重疊之論述,已明顯迥然不同。

在本文的推導與証明過程中,我們發現在理性預期下,央行的不確定性貨幣政策可能使民眾的預期匯率及預期產出,產生高估或低估的現象;此外,本文亦提出,當新的訊息進入情報集合時,民眾立即充分運用訊息,且修正先前的利率預期值,此時預期調整路徑可有「非水平」躍動方式。
Reference: 1.張文雅、溫學華、賴景昌,1994。「宣示效果與不確定的政策變動」。     83年度行政院國科會經濟學門專題研究成果發表會會議論文,台北:    國科會。
2.賴景昌(1994),<<國際金融理論:進階篇>>。台北:茂昌。
3.賴景昌(2006),<<經體經濟學>>。台北:雙葉。
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Description: 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
94258037
95
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258037
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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