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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35778
題名: | 利率指標與不確定政策宣示 Interest Rate Targeting and Announced Policy with Uncertainty |
作者: | 林鴻文 Lin,Hung Wen |
貢獻者: | 賴景昌 Lai,Ching-Chong 林鴻文 Lin,Hung Wen |
關鍵詞: | 利率指標 不確定政策 宣示效果 |
日期: | 2006 | 上傳時間: | 18-九月-2009 | 摘要: | 本文擬以Fleming(1962)模型作為本文的理論架構,並延續張文雅、溫學華與賴景昌(1994)對於不確定政策變動的研究,釋放完全預知的強烈假定,討論「利率調幅不確定」的貨幣政策,並加入「名目利率指標」設定。本文明確地指出在央行實施不確定性貨幣政策的期間,民眾修正預期利率的結果,將導致匯率和產出之預期動態調整路徑,與經濟體系真實動態路徑不會有完全重合的可能性。本文此一結論,與上述文獻認為預期與實際調整路徑完全重疊之論述,已明顯迥然不同。\n\n 在本文的推導與証明過程中,我們發現在理性預期下,央行的不確定性貨幣政策可能使民眾的預期匯率及預期產出,產生高估或低估的現象;此外,本文亦提出,當新的訊息進入情報集合時,民眾立即充分運用訊息,且修正先前的利率預期值,此時預期調整路徑可有「非水平」躍動方式。 | 參考文獻: | 1.張文雅、溫學華、賴景昌,1994。「宣示效果與不確定的政策變動」。 83年度行政院國科會經濟學門專題研究成果發表會會議論文,台北: 國科會。 2.賴景昌(1994),<<國際金融理論:進階篇>>。台北:茂昌。 3.賴景昌(2006),<<經體經濟學>>。台北:雙葉。 1.Balduzzi, P., Bertola, G. , Foresi, S. and Klapper, L., 1998. ‘‘Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates,’’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30: 26-50. 2.Bonser-Neal, C., Roley, V. V. and Sellon, G. H., 2000. ‘‘The Effect of Monetary Policy Actions on Exchange Rates under Interest-Rate Targeting,’’ Journal of International Money and Finance 19: 601- 631. 3.Boyce, W. E., 2001. Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems, 3rd Edition. New York: Addison Wiley. 4.Daniel, B. C., 1989. ‘‘One-Sided Uncertainty about Future Fiscal Policy,’’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 21: 176-189. 5.Diamond, D. and Dybvig, P., 1983. “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity.” Journal of Political Economy 91: 401-419. 6.Dornbusch, R., 1976. ‘‘Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,’’ Journal of Political Economy 84: 1161- 1176. 7.Garfinkel, M. R. and Oh, S., 1993. “Strategic Discipline in Monetary Policy with Private Information:Optimal Targeting Horizons,” American Economic Review 83: 99-117. 8.Gray, M. and Turnovsky, S. J. (1979), “The Staility of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight,” International Economic Review 20, pp. 643-660. 9.Huang, K. X. D. and Liu, Z., 2005. “Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target ? ” Journal of Monetary Economics 52: 1435-1462. 10.Kobayashi, T., 2004. ‘‘Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Interest Rate Targeting,’’ Journal of Macroeconomics 26: 725-735. 11.Leitemo, K., 2006. “Targeting Inflation by Forecast Feedback Fules in Small Open Economies, ” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 30: 393-413. 12.Mishkin, F. S., 2004 . The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 6th Edition. New York: Addison Wesley. 13.Muth, J. F. (1961), “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica 29: 315- 335. 14.Poole, W., 1970. ‘‘Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,’’ Quarterly Journal of Economics 84: 197-216. 15.Wilson, C. A. (1979), “Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 87, pp. 639-647. |
描述: | 碩士 國立政治大學 經濟研究所 94258037 95 |
資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258037 | 資料類型: | thesis |
Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
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