Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35792


Title: 1973~2000年東南亞經濟體國際觀光競爭力之研究
Authors: 留美萍
Contributors: 王國樑
留美萍
Keywords: 國際觀光競爭力
三階段最小平方法
Date: 2002
Issue Date: 2009-09-18 16:03:17 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 自1970年之後,國際觀光業在東南亞地區呈現蓬勃發展的趨勢,自1973年後,全球觀光業仍呈現穩定成長狀態;然而,事實上,東南亞七經濟體各自國際觀光競爭力卻開始呈現消長互現的情形,有些經濟體國際觀光競爭力呈現持續成長的現象,部份經濟體卻呈現逐漸衰退的趨勢,若進一步以台灣觀光客首要來源國(美國與日本)及澳洲三大來源國市場做分析,台灣在三大市場國際觀光競爭力表現持續走下坡;印尼、及泰國在美、日市場國際觀光競爭力表現呈穩定成長;香港、新加坡在澳洲市場國際觀光競爭力日益加強,但在美國及日本市場國際觀光競爭力卻日漸衰退,其餘國家國際觀光競爭力則上下起伏不定。本文首先根據消費理論,建立一包含國際觀光的消費者決策模型;其次,依據此理論模型推導出國際觀光相對競爭力的因果關係式;然後,參考既有文獻,建立實證模型;最後,則利用1973-2000年東南亞七經濟體資料,透過三階段最小平方法,分別探討各經濟體國際觀光競爭力的影響因素。結果發現:(一) 相對價格的影響將視旅遊目的及型態的不同而有差異;(二) 匯率的影響將視觀光旅遊支出是以當地貨幣計算或旅遊來源國貨幣計算而有差異;(三)供給面因素對於國際觀光市場的確具有決定性的影響。且對於不同的來源國及不同的目的國亦將產生不同的效果。依據上述實證結果,有四點政策性建議可提供做為參考:(一)目的國為了有效提昇其國際觀光競爭力,針對不同的來源國觀光客,似乎應採不同行銷或提昇策略。(二)目的國在採取行銷策略以有效提昇其國際觀光競爭力時,應將與鄰近經濟體的替代或互補關係及其觀光政策納入考量。(三)主管單位在規劃觀光政策措施時,應將政策效果期限納入考量。(四)匯率調整未必是提昇國際觀光競爭力的有效工具。
Reference: Artus, J.R. (1972) An Econometric Analysis of International Travel, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 19(3), 579-614.
Chu, F.L. (1993) Elasticities of Substitution in Pacific Rim Tourism, mimeo.
Crouch, G.I. and Shaw, R.N. (1990) Determinants of International Tourism, Annuals of Tourism Research, 19,643-64.
Crouch, G.I. (1993) Elasticities of Substitution in Pacific Rim Tourism, mimeo.
Deaton, A. and Muellbauer, J. (1980) An Almost Ideal Demand System, American Economic Review, 70,312-26.
Eadington, W.R. and Redman, M. (1991) Economics and Tourism, Annuals of Tourism Research, 18, 41-56.
Gujarati, D.N. (1988) Basic Econometrics, 2nd edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York.
Martin, C. A and Witt, S.F. (1987) Tourism Forecasting Models: Choice of Appropriate Variable to Represent Tourists’ Cost of Living, Tourism Management, 8,233-45.
Moshirian, F. (1993) Determinants of International Trade Flows in Travel and Passenger Services, The Economic Record, 69(206), 239-52.
O’Hagan, J.W. and Harrison, M.J. (1984) Market Shares of U.S. Tourist Expenditures in Europe: An Econometric Analysis, Applied Economics, 16(6), 9119-31.
Pindyck, R.S. and Rubinfeld, D.L. (1981) Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 2nd edition, Mc Graw-Hill Book Company, New York.
St. Martin’s Press, New York.
Truett, D.B. and Truett, L.J. (1987) The Response of Tourism to International Economic Conditions: Greece, Mexico and Spain, The Journal of Developing Areas, 21(2), 177-90.
Tsai, P.L. and Wang, K.L. (1998) Competitiveness of international tourism in Taiwan: US versus Japanese visitors, Applied Economics, 30,631-641.
Varian, H.R. (1992) Microeconomic Analysis, 3rd edition, W.W. Norton, New York.
Vellas, F. and Lionel, B. (1995) International Tourism, 1st edition, St. Martin’s Press, New York.
Wang, K.L. and Wu, C.S. (2003) A Study of Competitiveness of International Tourism in the South East Asian Region, in Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, eds., Services Trade in the Asian-Pacific Region , Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 315-340.
Wite, K.J. (1985) An International Travel Demand Model: Us Travel to Western Europe, Annuals of Tourism Research, 12(4), 529-45.
WTO, Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, 2002, World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain.
Yair, E. and Liran, E. (2001) The Determinants of International Tourism: A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis: Working paper.
Description: 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
90258005
91
Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902580051
Data Type: thesis
Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
58005101.pdf41KbAdobe PDF2281View/Open
58005102.pdf45KbAdobe PDF1999View/Open
58005104.pdf188KbAdobe PDF2501View/Open
58005105.pdf201KbAdobe PDF2328View/Open
58005106.pdf192KbAdobe PDF2707View/Open
58005107.pdf117KbAdobe PDF2754View/Open
58005108.pdf76KbAdobe PDF2105View/Open
58005109.pdf179KbAdobe PDF2482View/Open
58005110.pdf58KbAdobe PDF2771View/Open


All items in 學術集成 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


社群 sharing