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Title: Exports, Terms of Trade, and Growth
Authors: 林佑龍
Yo-long Lin
Contributors: 翁永和
Yo-long Lin
Keywords: Export-biased growth
Import-biased growth
Terms of trade
Export promotion hypothesis
Production-led hypothesis
Export-reducing production hypothesis
Production-reducing export hypothesis
Granger causality
Date: 2002
Issue Date: 2009-09-18 17:35:58 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 論文摘要



The purpose of first paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between exports and domestic production in 22 Taiwan main industries, using time series data for the period 1982:01~2002:07. Different from the previous literatures, this paper examines the relations by taking into account industrial data because we are wondering whether the causal links between exports and outputs still sustain in individual industry, and either export promotion or production-led policies are more effective for industrial production. Hence, three related topics will be discussed: to recognize the incidence of export promotion policy in Taiwan industries, to explore either export promotion or production-led policies is more effective for industrial production, and to detect whether all exportation-oriented industries would simultaneously support export promotion hypothesis. The findings of the econometric analysis employing Granger causality test do not have enough evidence to support that the proportion of exports to production is a necessary condition for generating export promotion. Nevertheless, this study suggests that production makes great influence on exports in Taiwan individual industry but the effects of exports on production is not so prevailing as we thought before. Therefore, the influence of production to exports in Taiwan industry is more prevalent than that of exports to outputs.

The purpose of the second paper is to examine the impacts of growth types on terms of trade by making a comparison between 8 industrial countries and 7 developing countries (involving 3 NICs countries). This paper finds that the theories seems not be supported because evidence shows the occurrence of positive effects of export-biased growth to terms of trade are more prevalent than negative ones. Moreover, the empirical results of negative incidence shown by import-biased growth come into conflict with theories, and the impacts of import-biased growth on terms of trade are indefinite. In addition, most results reveals that export-biased growth and import-biased growth policies in industrial countries are invalid, and most results in NICs and developing countries are ambiguous while export-biased growth or import-biased growth policies are adopted. Furthermore, the empirical results reveal that income transferring have great or opposite influence in NICs and developing countries, and trade openness is advantageous to NICs and developing countries but is disadvantageous to developed ones.
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