普丁時期俄羅斯與東南亞關係之研究

Abstract

冷戰時期，蘇聯對印度支那半島政策的變化，是東南亞地區穩定的重要變數之一。蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯聯邦獨立，並且繼承原蘇聯所有的國際義務與權力。問題在於，在當代東南亞多元權力互動的格局中，俄羅斯在其間扮演何種角色？普丁政府在面臨國內外局勢變化之下，能否恢復俄羅斯（前蘇聯）在東南亞的國際政治利益？\n 本文試圖透過地緣經濟分析途徑，來觀察冷戰後俄羅斯在普丁時期對東南亞政策之形成背景、主要內涵，以及互動關係。本文認為，隨著冷戰終結和亞太國際局勢之變化，亞太地區主要政治力量都在調整自身的政治、經濟、外交和安全戰略。為了保障區域安全、和平與穩定，東南亞國家加速東協整合及擴大的腳步，期望在政經及安全問題方面達成共識，並力求獲得區域事務的主導權和影響力。俄羅斯與東南亞諸國發展關係在於保障國家經濟利益的實現，進而追求在亞太地區中取得優勢地位，最終完成大國地位的目標。\n 首先，本文探討自蘇聯解體後俄羅斯獨立以來，俄羅斯外交思想、地緣戰略思想之演變與俄羅斯亞太政策的關係。同時，回顧蘇聯最後一任領導人戈巴契夫、俄羅斯前任總統葉爾欽及現任總統普丁亞太政策的變遷重點，旨在檢視俄羅斯對東南亞政策的歷史脈絡時，有比較清晰的政策變動觀點以供分析。\n 其次，本文討論俄羅斯（包括前蘇聯）與東南亞主要國家的雙邊關係，而以政治、經濟、軍事及文化等面向為分析層次，依次觀察和分析雙邊關係所呈現的特色和問題。研究分成俄羅斯與傳統邦交國和俄羅斯與美國盟國兩部份，分析雙邊關係合作的原因、過程、變動和影響。\n 最後，藉由回顧前蘇聯與東協關係的發展歷程，探討俄羅斯與東協國家之多邊政治對話、經貿及軍事關係，主要目的在瞭解普丁政府對東南亞地區各國間多邊關係之態度、立場及政策。

During the cold war, Soviet involvement in Indochina Peninsula was one of the crucial factors which affected the political stability in Southeast Asia. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation gained independence and inherited all the privileges and obligations of the former Soviet Union in the international arena, but the situation in Indochina and Southeast Asia has changed a great deal. What role does Russia play in this important geopolitical region? Given the new domestic and international realities, will the Putin government regain the political interests and influence which the former Soviet Union once possessed in this region?\n\nThrough geo-economic analysis, this thesis tries to explore the main contents of the Putin government`s policy toward Southeast Asia, its formation background and the establishment of multi-lateral relationship with the major countries in this area. We observe that, with the end of the Cold War, and facing a different international situation, all the major political entities in SE Asia are making adjustments on the political and economic fronts, as well as in foreign and security policies. For the sake of regional security and stability, SE Asia countries have accelerated the expansion and integration of the ASEAN organization to secure its leadership in the regional affairs. From the Russian point of view, economy is no doubt a major factor which influences it policy formation in recent years. Starting from the pursuit of national economic interests, Russia also hopes to regain the status of a major player in this region, as the former Soviet Union once had.\n\nTo start with, we study the evolution of Russian foreign policy and geopolitical thoughts and its relation to Russia`s Asian Pacific policy. Also, we review the changes in the Asian pacific policies during the years of Gorbachov, Yeltsin, and Putin. The aim is to gain a clearer view of the factors which affected the making of the policies.\n\nSecondly, we discuss the bilateral relationships between the major countries of SE Asia and Russia (and also the former Soviet Union), which include political, economic, military, and cultural aspects. We try to extract the special features and problems in these bilateral relationships. This studies is divided into two parts, one includes countries which were traditional allies of the former Soviet Union, while the other includes countries which belonged to the opposite camp - aligned with the USA. We study the major driving factors and the historical steps which resulted in the establishment of full bilateral cooperation between Russia and various SE Asian countries.\n\nFinally, after a review of the relationship between the former Soviet Union and ASEAN, we investigate Russia`s establishment of multi-lateral dialogue with ASEAN countries on political, economic, and military fronts. The aim is to understand the motive and policy of the Putin government in the area of multi-national cooperation in SE Asia.