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Title: 中國物價膨脹與經濟成長之實證分析
Inflation and economic growth in China: an empirical analysis
Authors: 吳銘家
Wu, Ming Jia
Contributors: 黃仁德
Hwang, Jen Te
Wu, Ming Jia
Keywords: 經濟成長
Threshold Effect
Date: 2008
Issue Date: 2009-09-18 20:38:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文旨在研究中國物價膨脹對其經濟成長的非線性效果,一個重要卻未有定論的議題。我們採用自 1986 年至 2006 年中國各省官方公佈的國內生產總值、消費者物價指數、與其它解釋變數的數據,透過追蹤資料進行迴歸分析。本文主要發現為中國物價膨脹門檻的估計結果十分顯著且深具頑強性。當物價膨脹率超過 2.5% 此一門檻值,物價膨脹率每超出 1% 將減低經濟成長率 0.61%;而物價膨脹率低於該門檻值時,物價膨脹率每增加 1% 將刺激經濟成長率 0.53%。是故,我們建議中國政府應維持溫和的物價膨脹以利於長期經濟成長。
This paper investigates a crucial but still open issue about the nonlinear effect of inflation on economic growth in China. We adopt official provincial data set of gross provincial product, consumer price index, as well as other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, and regression of panel data is used for analysis. The main finding is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.5% inflation threshold, every increase of inflation rate by 1% impedes economic growth by 0.61%; below the threshold, such degree of increase stimulates the growth by 0.53%. We suggest China shall keep inflation rate moderate for long-run growth.
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