Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37057| 題名: | 中國物價膨脹與經濟成長之實證分析 Inflation and economic growth in China: an empirical analysis |
作者: | 吳銘家 Wu, Ming Jia |
貢獻者: | 黃仁德 Hwang, Jen Te 吳銘家 Wu, Ming Jia |
關鍵詞: | 經濟成長 物價膨脹 門檻效果 Growth Inflation Threshold Effect |
日期: | 2008 | 上傳時間: | 18-九月-2009 | 摘要: | 本文旨在研究中國物價膨脹對其經濟成長的非線性效果，一個重要卻未有定論的議題。我們採用自 1986 年至 2006 年中國各省官方公佈的國內生產總值、消費者物價指數、與其它解釋變數的數據，透過追蹤資料進行迴歸分析。本文主要發現為中國物價膨脹門檻的估計結果十分顯著且深具頑強性。當物價膨脹率超過 2.5% 此一門檻值，物價膨脹率每超出 1% 將減低經濟成長率 0.61%；而物價膨脹率低於該門檻值時，物價膨脹率每增加 1% 將刺激經濟成長率 0.53%。是故，我們建議中國政府應維持溫和的物價膨脹以利於長期經濟成長。 This paper investigates a crucial but still open issue about the nonlinear effect of inflation on economic growth in China. We adopt official provincial data set of gross provincial product, consumer price index, as well as other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, and regression of panel data is used for analysis. The main finding is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.5% inflation threshold, every increase of inflation rate by 1% impedes economic growth by 0.61%; below the threshold, such degree of increase stimulates the growth by 0.53%. We suggest China shall keep inflation rate moderate for long-run growth. |
參考文獻: | Apergis, N. (2005), “Inflation Uncertainty and Growth: Evidence from Panel Data,” Australian Economic Papers, 44:2, 186-197. Barro, R. J. (1995), “Inflation and Economic Growth,” NBER Working Paper, No. 5326. Barro, R. J. (1999), “Notes on Growth Accounting,” Journal of Economic Growth, 4:2, 119-137. Bolton, D. M. and W. R. J. Alexander (2001), “The Differing Consequences of Low and High Rates of Inflation,” Applied Economics Letters, 8:6, 411-414. Bruno, M. and W. Easterly (1998), “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 41:1, 3-26. Burdekin, R. C. K., A. T. Denzau, M. W. Keil, T. Sitthiyot, and T. D. Willett (2004), “When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 26:3, 519-532. Cooley, T. F. and G. D. Hansen (1989), “The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model,” American Economic Review, 79:4, 733-748. Chen, T. (2007), “Uncertainty, Inflation and Output Growth in China,” Economic Theory and Business Management, 12, 23-29. (In Chinese) Chen, Z. X. and J. Hsu (2006), “Empirical Analysis on Correlation between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth Rate,” Modern Information, 26:9, 213-214. (In Chinese) Christoffersen, P. and P. Doyle (2000), “From Inflation to Growth: Eight Years of Transition,” Economics of Transition, 8:2, 421-451. Engelbrecht, H. J. and C. Langley (2001), “Inflation Crises, Deflation, and Growth: Further Evidence,” Applied Economics, 33:9, 1157-1165. Espinosa-Vega, M. A. and C. K. Yip (1999), “Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in an Endogenous Growth Model with Financial Intermediaries,” International Economic Review, 40:3, 595-616. Fischer, S. (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Factor in Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32:3, 485-512. Ghosh, A. and S. Phillips (1998), “Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth,” IMF Staff Papers, 45:4, 672-710. Greene, W. H. (2000), Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall. Grossman, G. M. and E. Helpman (1990), “Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth,” American Economic Review, 80:4, 796-815. Gylfason, T. and T. T. Herbertsson (2001), “Does Inflation Matter for Growth?” Japan and the World Economy, 13:4, 405-428. Hansen, B. E. (1996), “Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,” Econometrica, 64:2, 413-430. Hansen, B. E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference,” Journal of Econometrics, 93:2, 345-368. Haslag, J. H. (1995), “Monetary Policy, Banking, and Growth,” Economic Inquiry, 36:3, 489-500. Hung, F. S. (2001), “Inflation and Economic Growth in Financial Market with Adverse Selection and Costly State Verification,” Academia Economic Papers, 29:1, 67-89. Jones, L. E. and R. E. Manuelli (1995), “Growth and the Effects of Inflation,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19:8, 1405-1428. Khan, M. S. and A. S. Senhadji (2001), “Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth,” IMF Staff Papers, 48:1, 1-21. Kim, S. and T. D. Willett (2000), “Is the Negative Correlation between Inflation and Growth Real? An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks,” Applied Economics Letters, 7:3, 141-147. Kong, D. M. (2007), “Does Inflation Restrain the Financial Development and Economic Growth,” Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 10, 56-66. (In Chinese) Levine, R. and D. Renelt (1992), “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,” American Economic Review, 82:4, 942-963. Liu, J. Q. and W. D. Xie (2003), “Dynamic Correlation between Economic Growth and Inflation in China,” World Economy, 6, 48-57. (Iin Chinese) Liu, J. Q. and H. Zhang (2003), “Empirical Examination on Tobin Effect and Anti-Tobin Effect in Chinese Economy,” Management World, 5, 18-24. (In Chinese) Mubarik, Y. A. (2005), “Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan,” SBP (State Bank of Pakistan)－Research Bulletin, 1:1, 35-44. Mundell, R. (1963), “Inflation and Real Interest,” Journal of Political Economy, 71:3, 280-283. Narayan, P. K., S. Narayan, and R. Smyth (2009), “Understanding the Inflation-Output Nexus for China,” China Economic Review, 20:1, 82-90. Pollin, R. and A. D. Zhu (2006), “Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Nonlinear Analysis,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28:4, 593-614. Sarel, M. (1996), “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth,” IMF Staff Papers, 43:1, 199-215. Singh, K. and K. Kalirajan (2003), “The Inflation-Growth Nexus in India: An Empirical Analysis,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 25:4, 377-396. Solow, R. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70:1, 65-94. Stockman, A. C. (1981), “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 8:3, 387-393. Sweidan, O. D. (2004), “Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan? An Empirical Analysis for the Period 1970-2000,” International Journal of Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1:2, 41-66. Tobin, J. (1965), “Money and Economic Growth,” Econometrica, 33:4, 671-684. Tobin, J. (1972), “Inflation and Unemployment,” American Economic Review, 62:1, 1-18. Wang, T. (1996), Economic Analysis of Price Inflation in Mainland China. Taipei: Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research. (In Chinese) |
描述: | 碩士 國立政治大學 東亞研究所 95260005 97 |
資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095260005 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000501.pdf | 92.54 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000502.pdf | 61.39 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000503.pdf | 61.19 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000504.pdf | 62.53 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000505.pdf | 77.42 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000506.pdf | 124.84 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000507.pdf | 181.71 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000508.pdf | 167.6 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000509.pdf | 62.83 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000510.pdf | 84.39 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open | |
| 000511.pdf | 204.97 kB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
Google ScholarTM
Check
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.