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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37390
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.advisor劉義周<br>鄧中堅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author許勝懋zh_TW
dc.contributor.authorHsu, Shen Maoen_US
dc.creator許勝懋zh_TW
dc.creatorHsu, Shen Maoen_US
dc.date2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-09-19T05:22:49Z-
dc.date.available2009-09-19T05:22:49Z-
dc.date.issued2009-09-19T05:22:49Z-
dc.identifierG0892525042en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37390-
dc.description博士zh_TW
dc.description國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description政治研究所zh_TW
dc.description89252504zh_TW
dc.description95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。\n\n影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。\n\n本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論：\n\n首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractIn the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy. \n\nThere are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents第一章 緒論 1\n第一節 研究動機 3\n第二節 文獻檢閱 8\n第三節 研究主題與研究架構 20\n第四節 研究方法與研究資料 25\n\n第二章 台灣與墨西哥民主轉型：一九八○年～二○○○年 39\n第一節 民主轉型之主要問題 40\n第二節 台灣民主轉型過程的主要問題 46\n第三節 墨西哥民主轉型過程的主要問題 55\n第四節 台灣與墨西哥民主轉型之比較 64\n\n第三章 政黨重組與政黨輪替 71\n第一節 政黨認同與政黨重組 71\n第二節 選民政黨重組對台灣二○○○年選舉結果的影響 77\n第三節 選民政黨重組對墨西哥二○○○年選舉結果的影響 89\n第四節 台灣與墨西哥選民政黨認同變動及其影響之比較 103\n\n第四章 候選人因素與政黨輪替 107\n第一節 候選人形象與候選人評價 107\n第二節 選民候選人評價對台灣二○○○年選舉結果的影響 112\n第三節 選民候選人評價對墨西哥二○○○年選舉結果的影響 126\n第四節 台灣與墨西哥選民候選人評價及其影響之比較 134\n\n第五章 重大議題與政黨輪替 139\n第一節 選民重大議題評價對台灣二○○○年選舉結果的影響 140\n第二節 選民重大議題評價對墨西哥二○○○年選舉結果的影響 160\n第三節 台灣與墨西哥選民重大議題評價之比較 181\n\n第六章 台灣與墨西哥政黨輪替主因：綜合分析 187\n第一節 台灣二○○○年總統選舉政黨輪替主因之綜合分析 187\n第二節 墨西哥二○○○年總統選舉政黨輪替主因之綜合分析 195\n第三節 台灣與墨西哥政黨輪替之比較分析：選民行為的觀點 204\n\n第七章 結 論 213\n第一節 研究發現 213\n第二節 本研究的貢獻與限制 224\n\n附錄一 台灣面訪問卷節略版 233\n附錄二 墨西哥面訪問卷節略版 239\n\n參考書目 245zh_TW
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dc.language.isoen_US-
dc.source.urihttp://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892525042en_US
dc.subject政黨輪替zh_TW
dc.subject政黨重組zh_TW
dc.subject候選人因素zh_TW
dc.subject對候選人情感溫度zh_TW
dc.subject經濟前瞻評價zh_TW
dc.subject改革議題zh_TW
dc.subjectparty rotationen_US
dc.subjectparty realignmenten_US
dc.subjectcandidate imageen_US
dc.subjectfeeling thermometersen_US
dc.subjectprospective economic votingen_US
dc.subjectthe salience issue of changeen_US
dc.title選民投票行為與政黨輪替：台灣及墨西哥二０００年總統選舉之比較zh_TW
dc.typethesisen
dc.relation.reference壹、中文部分zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference龐建國，1993，國家發展理論－兼論台灣發展經驗。台北：巨流圖書公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference二、期刊zh_TW
dc.relation.reference王宏仁，1999，《一九五０年代的台灣階級結構與流動初探》，台灣社會研究季刊，36期，頁1-35。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference王容君，1988，《墨西哥總統選舉剖析》，問題與研究，28卷1期，頁58-70。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference王甫昌，1998，《族群意識、民族主義與政黨支持：1990年代台灣的族群政治》，台灣社會學研究，第2期，頁1-45。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference王鼎銘，2003，《政策認同下的投票效用與選擇：空間投票理論在不同選舉制度間的比較》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁171-206。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference王鼎銘，2004，《選民為什麼會支持黑金？一個理性交易的解釋》，選舉研究，11卷1期，頁99-126。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference石之瑜，2005，《消失的中間選民：2004年總統大選對空間理論的修正》，問題與研究，44卷4期，頁1-24。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference何思因，1993，《台灣地區選民政黨偏好的變遷：1989-1992》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁39-52。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference何思因、吳釗燮，1996，《台灣政治體系之下政黨認同的測量方法》，選舉研究，3卷1期，頁1-16。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference李酉潭，1998，《文武關係與民主鞏固初探》，中山人文社會科學期刊，6卷1期，頁131-169。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference金溥聰，1997，《報紙的形象設定效果研究—以民國八十三年台北市市場選舉為例》，新聞學研究，55期，頁203-223。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference吳乃德，1992，《國家認同和政黨支持：台灣政黨競爭的社會基礎》，中央研究院民族學研究所集刊，78期，頁101-130。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference吳乃德，1999，《家庭社會化和意識型態：台灣選民政黨認同的世代差異》，台灣社會學研究，3期，頁53-85。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference吳東野，1996，《『半總統制』政府體系的理論與實際》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁37-49。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference林佳龍，2000，《政權交接的重要原則與法制化》，國策專刊：政權移轉與國家發展，15期，頁2-5。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference周育仁，1996，《總統直選對我國憲政體制之影響》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁62-74。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference周陽山，1996，《總統制、議會制、半總統制與政治穩定》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁50-61。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference胡佛、游盈隆，1983，《選民的投票取向:結構與類型的分析》，政治學報，11期，頁223-279。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference宮城和宏、董宜嫻，1994，《中華民國與墨西哥經濟發展策略之比較》，問題與研究，33卷4期，頁43-64。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐火炎，1991，《政黨認同與投票抉擇：台灣地區選民對政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析》，人文及社會科學集刊，4卷1期，頁1-57。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐火炎，1995，《「李登輝情結」與省市長選舉的投票行為：一項政治心理學的分析》，選舉研究，2卷2期，頁1-36。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐火炎，1998b，《李登輝情結的政治心理與選民的投票行為》，選舉研究，5卷2期，頁35-71。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐永明，2001，《事件與議題：台灣2000年總統選舉鐘的興票案與兩岸關係》，民意研究季刊，215期，頁67-102。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference袁頌西，1999，《當代政治研究與自然語言問題》，政治科學論叢，10期，頁1-26。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference郭正亮，1996，《尋求總統和國會的平衡：雙首長制對台灣憲改的時代意義》，問題與研究，35卷7期，頁56-72。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference梁世武，1994，《1994台北市長選舉之預測：「候選人形象指標」預測模式之驗證》，選舉研究，1卷2期，頁97-130。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference盛治仁，2000，《總統選舉預測探討-以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用》，選舉研究，7卷2期，頁75-108。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference盛治仁，2001，《及時資訊處理模型與投票行為研究的運用—以美國選民投票行為分析為例》，選舉研究，8卷2期，頁31-64。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference盛杏湲，1998，《選民的投票決定與選與預測》，選舉研究，5卷1期，頁37-76。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference盛杏湲，2002，《統獨議題與台灣選民投票行為：一九九○年代的分析》，選舉研究，9卷1期，頁41-80。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳文俊，1995，《統獨議題與選民的投票行為—民國八十三年省市長選舉分析》，選舉研究，2卷2期，頁99-136。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳文俊，2003，《藍與綠—台灣選民的政治意識型態初探》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁41-80。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳世敏，1992，《候選人形象與選民投票行為》，新聞學研究，46期，頁148-168。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳俊明，2005，《政黨輪替、文武關係與台灣民主鞏固：分析架構與策略》，政治科學論叢，24期，頁77-110。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳陸輝，2000，《台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷》，選舉研究，7卷2期，頁109-139。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳義彥，1994，《我國選民的集群分析及其投票傾向的預測：從民國八十一年立委選舉探討》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁1-37。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳義彥，2003，《台灣選舉行為調查的回顧與展望～「TEDS2001」學術研討會圓桌論壇講詞》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁1-6。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳義彥、蔡孟熹，1997，《新世代選民的政黨取向與投票抉擇—首屆民選總統的分析》，政治學報，29卷，頁63-92。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference游盈隆，1994，《台灣選民的議題取向投票：二屆國大選民的分析》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁219-254。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference游盈隆，1999，《台灣族群認同的政治心理分析》，台灣政治學刊，1期，頁41-84。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference游清鑫，1996，《台灣政治民主化之鞏固：前景與隱憂》，政治學報，27期，頁201-223。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference黃光國，2000，《多元典範的研究取向：論社會心理學的本土化》，社會理論學報，3卷1期，頁1-51zh_TW
dc.relation.reference黃紀，2001，《一致與分裂投票：方法論之探討》，人文與社會科學集刊，13卷5期，頁541-574。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference黃秀端，1994，《經濟情況與選民投票抉擇》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁97-123。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference黃秀端，1996，《決定勝負的關鍵：候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性》，選舉研究，3卷1期，頁103-136。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference黃秀端，2005，《候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為》，台灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁1-30。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference傅明穎，1998，《北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定》，台灣政治學刊，3期，頁195-244。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference傅恆德，1996，《決定投票選擇的結構、心理和理性因素：民國八十五年總統選舉研究，選舉研究，3卷2期，頁157-186。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference謝復生、牛銘實、林慧萍，1995，《民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析》，選舉研究，2卷1期，77-92。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉天均，1994，《析墨西哥一九九四年大選》，問題與研究，33卷12期，頁34-47。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉義周，1994，《台灣政黨形象的世代差異》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁53-73。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉義周，2005，《典型的回顧型投票—2005年三合一選舉結果的解析》，臺灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁147-153。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉從葦，2004，《中央與地方分立政府的形成：一個空間理論的觀點》，臺灣政治學刊，7卷2期，頁107-147。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference鄭曉時，1992，《政體與軍隊：台灣文武關係（1950-1987）的一個分析架構》，人文及社會科學集刊，5卷1期，頁129-172。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference駱明慶，2001，教育成就的省籍與性別差異，經濟論文叢刊，29期，頁117-152。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference顧忠華，1999，《公民結社的結構變遷—以台灣非營利組織的發展為例》，台灣社會研究季刊，36期，頁123-145。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference三、論文zh_TW
dc.relation.reference林瓊珠，1998，台灣政黨體系重組過程之研究：一九九一年至一九九六年，政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐火炎，2001，《台灣政黨版圖的重劃：民進黨、國民黨與親民黨的「民」基比較》，發表於2001年台灣政治學會年會暨政黨輪替後之台灣政治學術研討會論文集，台灣政治學會、政治大學政治系與政治大學選舉研究中心，2001年12月15-16日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference徐永明， 2000，《南方政治\"的形成？台灣政黨支持的地域差別：1994-2000》，發表於「新世紀的選舉學術研討會」，政治大學選舉研究中心主辦，台北。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳陸輝、耿曙，2003，《分立政府下的政治賦權：以2002年北高市長選舉為例》，2002年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，11月1-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference陳義彥、陳陸輝，2002，《政治功效意識、政治信任感以及台灣選民的民主價值》，2001年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，10月19-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉義周，1997，《政治學概念測量的困難：政黨認同的實例》，國立政治大學政治學系主辦「政治學研究方法」學術研討會宣讀論文，1997年5月31日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference劉義周，1998，《統獨態度的世代差異》，兩岸關係問題民意調查學術研討會論文集，國立政治大學與行政院大陸委員會，1997年5月17-18日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference四、資料zh_TW
dc.relation.reference行政院內政部，《人口統計資料》，2001年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference中央選舉委員會與政治大學選舉研究中心共同開發，《歷屆公職人員選舉資料》，2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference政治大學選舉研究中心，《重要政治態度分佈趨勢》，2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference台灣大學，《臺灣二○○○年總統大選面訪調查計畫》，2002年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference行政院主計處第三局，《政府統計指標》，2007年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference中華民國外交部，《國情詳細內容》，2006年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference五、網路zh_TW
dc.relation.reference李心怡，〈改革色彩獲認同，宋連瞠乎其後〉，博客來網路書店，http://www.books.com.tw/data/magazine/N-Taiwan.nsf/Item_View/855250C56C7A22F3482568A5002245B6-OpenDocument.htm，2002年5月10日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference胡小君，〈墨西哥革命制度黨緣何喪失政權？〉，人民網，http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/30178/3727474.html，2005年9月26日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference貳、西文部分zh_TW
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