台北都會區的就業成長來源分析

Abstract

移轉份額分析是研究都會區經濟或就業成長來源最重要的方法之一。近三十年的研究發展，使得移轉份額分析無論是在理論設計的改進上，抑或是實證估計的工具與方法的應用上，皆有著相當大的成就。我們將利用移轉份額分析中的全國成長、產業組合、以及區域競爭等三種效果，以瞭解台北都會區的經濟成長情況。特別是我們引進動態移轉份額作評估，可以進一步瞭解台北都會此三種效果的時間趨勢，這對於研究就業成長很有幫助。最後，我們使用迴歸分析與混合資料，將台北都會區的製造業就業資料分為兩時段，如此不但可以瞭解那一種類型的就業成長效果對台北都會區的就業成長最為關鍵之外，也可以知道在不同的時段中，關鍵的成長效果是否產生變化。 Shift-share analysis focuses on the sources of employment growth of a region. Through researches of the last thirty years, shift-share analysis has been enormously improved and extended no matter from theoretical revisions or empirical methods. This paper applies three effects of this method, including national growth, industry mix and regional competition to compute employment growth of Greater Taipei metropolitan area. More importantly, we can easily understand time trend of these three effects under dynamic shift-share analysis and this is essential to study metropolitan development. To further know which effect is critical for metropolitan growth when time goes by, we use pooling data of manufacture and this data is divided into two intervals. In result, we find that there are different critical growth effects for different time intervals through econometric estimation.