中共南亞戰略目標與發展之探討

Abstract

冷戰後，全球地緣政治發生了兩個重要變化，一是印度洋成為世界海權的「心臟」，二是中國和印度崛起為歐亞大陸上新的地緣權勢中心。由此，美、中、印三國的安全戰略都聚焦印度洋，在地緣政治視角下，圍繞印度洋海權之爭，三國在印度洋極力締造均勢，並為自己謀求最大的戰略利益。 \n近幾年美國才赫然發現，一直被忽視的印度其實是南亞安定的基石。不但是全球最大民主國，更是中東、中亞、南亞間的樞紐，一能替民主世界穩住這塊戰略板塊，二能攔阻回教基本教義及恐怖主義。尤其中共崛起態勢森然，印度既能用來抗衡中共，又沒有真把美國比下去的實力或野心，是美國最合適的戰略夥伴？所以美國決心要與印度建立結盟關係，這將使南亞在未來數十年間的合縱連橫關係趨於複雜。 \n中共為保障經濟發展和能源運輸安全，為了突破「麻六甲」海峽，只有直面印度洋才能真正達到長期的戰略目的。21世纪的中共大戰略必須依托大陸，面向海洋，一出太平洋，二出印度洋。但對於外人把手伸進亞洲次大陸周圍，難免要讓印度神經緊繃。中共正在改變此前向巴基斯坦一邊倒的南亞戰略，轉而採取一種同樣重視對印關係的平衡外交。 \n美日防務指針和印度的印度洋戰略在威脅中共經濟發展方面不謀而合，客觀上已形成左右中共對外經濟命脈、制約中共海洋經濟發展的力量。無論是主觀願望，還是客觀現實，印度洋戰略因素的發展及其互動，是中共未來安全穩定不可忽視的因素。\n\n\n\n\n關鍵詞：印度洋、地緣政治、能源、安全、麻六甲

After cold war, global geopolitics has had two radical changes. First is the Indian Ocean becomes the heart of the world sea power; Second is China and India rise as a new power center of geopolitics in Eurasia. Thus, the security strategy of the America, China and India has focused on the Indian Ocean. From the viewpoint of geopolitics, surrounded by the competition of the sea power in the Indian Ocean, the three nations create a power balance vigorously and seek the best strategic benefit for itself.\nIn recent years, the America has suddenly realized that India which has been ignored all the time turns out to be the cornerstone of the South Asia’s stability. It is not only the biggest commonwealth of the world, but also the key position among Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. It can stand firm this strategic tectonic plate for the democratic world, and also detain the Islam basic religious doctrine and the terrorism. Especially when China rises the situation to be dense, India is the most appropriate strategy partner to the America, for its use to contend with China and lack with real power and ambition to look down upon the America. Therefore, the America has determined to form an alliance with India, which will make the political relations of South Asia more complicated in the future decades.\nFor the long-term strategic purpose, China can only face directly the India Ocean and breakthrough Malacca to assure economic development and energy transportation security. The main strategy of China in 21st century must rely on mainland and face the ocean. One is the Pacific Ocean, and the other is the Indian Ocean. However, for those bystanders who put their hands around the Asian subcontinent, it would unavoidably cause India in a state of nerves. China is changing the South Asia strategy, which used to favor Pakistan all the way, and turns into take a balanced diplomacy which puts equal emphasis on India.\nThe defense principles of the America and Japan hold the same view with India’s strategy of the Indian Ocean in threatening China’s economic development. Objectively, it has become a power to influence China’s foreign economic lifeline and restrict China’s economic development in ocean. Regardless of the subjective desire or the objective reality, the development and interaction of the strategic factors in the Indian Ocean is a noticeable factor to China’s future security and stability. \n\n\n\n\nKey word：the Indian Ocean，Geopolitics, Energy, Security, Malacca