國防財力資源分配評估機制與模式之研究

Abstract

軍費消長是一個國家國防現代化與支持國防建設程度的表徵，亦為衡量一國建軍備戰的主要指標之一。但是，在民主國家多元化的發展目標下，無可避免地必須正視目標的優先性與資源的排擠性。面對中國大陸近年來國防經費不斷的成長，及近年來我國國防預算佔GDP比率逐漸下降，且人員維持費逐漸膨脹，排擠軍備決策與作業維持與管理費用的效應下，國防預算結構面臨亟需全面的調整。如何配合新一代戰力規劃，進行軍事投資與籌設重要的設施，並考慮以最佳化的人員維持費以維繫正常運作乃當務之急。 本研究目的在從國防預算緊縮的觀點，參考國內外相關文獻，與相關機構對此問題實際解決方案，分析目前戰略與軍事投資之間的互動性，以及檢視目前國軍投資作業機制的合適性，並探討以模糊統計分析方法如模糊設計，模糊相關分配與檢定等統計分析，對有關國防經費供給與分配的議題做一更優質的分配與解釋，以因應現代化國防需求。 In recent decade, given the rapid increase of China`s military spending and gradural decrease of the ratio of Taiwan`s military budget to GDP, the inflation of military employee maintenance fees has crowding-out effect upon military investment and operational and management fees. Under the circumstances, the structure of military budget needs to be readjusted completely. In particular, under the new generation of strategic planning, how to allocate the resources in pareto optimum among military investment, oparational and management fees and military employee maintenance fees becomes a matter of great urgency. From a military budget constriction perspective and making reference to foreign and domestic relevant literature and suitable agencies` solution to the allocation problem, the purposes of the study are: first, to analyze the interaction between military strategy and military investment; and second, to examine the appropriateness of military operational and management mechanism; and finally, to explore an optimum allocation of military spending through fuzzy statistics in order to copy with military urgent needs.