88-91年振興房地產措施實施成效之評估

Abstract

政府自民國87年起，先後推出「振興建築投資業方案」及「健全房地產市場措施」等方案，期望藉由短中長期房地產市場供需面的調整與健全住宅政策的方式，能達到減輕空屋壓力、協助低收入戶與年輕人實現購屋願望、協助民眾換屋提高居住品質、帶動建築及相關產業景氣與促進金融體系的安定性等目標。而在這些房市振興方案之中牽涉最廣，且關乎民眾利益最深的莫過於各項優惠房貸的提供。綜觀優惠房貸措施的實行，雖對於刺激房市需求有一定程度的影響，但這些增加的購屋需求是優惠房貸所產生的效果？還是原本就存在於市場之中？另就補貼公平的角度來說，真正有購屋需求以及需要幫助的中低收入戶購屋者是否確實因為優惠房貸而受到適當的幫助？而從補貼的功能性來看，政府提供優惠房貸是否產生原先所預期之政策效果，如景氣的復甦、餘屋去化、稅收增加與解決銀行呆帳問題等也必需要做進一步的檢驗與釐清。是故，優惠房貸政策對於整體房地產市場的發展，究竟是扮演著「雪中送炭」，抑或是「錦上添花」的角色？本研究將試圖建立具體評估優惠房貸執行成效之內容，藉由客觀經濟模型之分析與主觀問卷調查的結果，相互驗證比較，衡量優惠房貸實際對於整體社會之成效或衝擊程度。最後就未來補貼政策之執行提出長短期之具體方針，使補貼方案能夠兼顧公平與效率之原則。 In terms of some housing policy instruments to adjust demand and supply of real estate market since 1998, the government expects to achieve its goals of housing policy, such as raising high homeownership rate for low-income and young people, improving the quality of dwelling by switching to new houses, stimulating construction business, and stabilizing financial system. Among these policy instruments, little is known about the efficacy of mortgage interest-rates subsidies supplied by government. This analysis will focus on not only benefit and cost but also equity of mortgage interest-rates subsidies. In particular, the efficacy of mortgage interest-rates subsidies will be measured based on its policy goals. Therefore, this analysis will build valuation indicators and models to assess the role of mortgage interest-rates subsidies in influencing the whole economy and give policy suggestion concerning about equity and efficiency.