太陽能產業上游太陽能等級多晶矽原料科技創業評估

Abstract

近幾年再生能源的議題非常的熱門，各種再生能源產業的風力發電、太陽能電池、生質能、燃料電池等產業資料，相關創業與投資訊息不斷的傳播。各種科技看起來，好像都是明日之星。對於一個要準備創業的創業家，那一個產業那一個區間才是適合的機會？在投入創業前要透過何種有效的篩選工具才能選出適當的創業機會？\r\n本研究先從史考特‧夏恩(2005) 的科技創業聖經十個面向，再到創新者的解答與創新者的解答中的所提出的破壞性創新的觀念，先以質性研究的紮根理論探討檢視潛在創業產業及個案的可行性探討，對於經過第一階段質性研究考驗的個案，再以折價現金流量（Discount Cash-Flow）建立量化研究的財務模型，以求得資本內部報酬率（Equity Internal Return Ratio）及淨現金流量（Net Present Value）並以敏感性分析及情境分析探討財務可行性，期望找出一個創業機會能完全符合所有前訴的條件。本研究歷經三年的探討，檢視過數十個個案，包括風力發電、燃料電池、生質酒精、生質柴油、太陽能產業上中下游等創業機會，若要在台灣的環境創業又要提高創業成功機率，且又要能滿足創業團隊財務的報酬率的期望，能經過這麼多條件考驗的個案少之又少。\r\n本研究最後選定以太陽能產業最上游的多晶矽改良式冶金法做為創業探討的個\r\n案，最主要的原因是太陽能產業是屬於一種再生能源，有很大的機會成為長期高速成長的產業，且台灣因半導體產業及面板產業已為太陽能產業建立了基礎，多晶矽改良式冶金法又是一種破壞性創新，能提高創業成功的機會，且若在上游產業成功創業，能建立很高的進入障礙，對太陽能產業的發展佈局能具有策略性的地位。多晶矽改良式冶金法創業計畫在經過財務模型試算後，資本內部報酬率及淨現金流量，即使以改變投資條件進行創業投資的敏感性分析，或以不同情境進行探討，都能符合財務需求條件，仍能滿足創業投資的要求。

Re-newable energy is very hot in these few years. There is lots of information mention about start-up and invest of renewable energy industry including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell. Seems every technology will be a future star industry. Which sector of what kind of re-newable energy technology will be the proper opportunity for an entrepreneur? What are effective tools to sieve the\r\nproper start-up chance out？\r\nThis research first using quality research grounding theories, this research verify proper industry and to find out the feasibility for the specific case. The technology management theories including , Shane’s （2005）「Find Fertile Ground – Indentifying Extraordinary Opportunities for New Ventures 」 10 procedures and Christensen ( 1997) 「 The innovator’s Dilemma 」、 Christensen & Raynor (2004)\r\n「The innovator’s Solution：The creating and sustaining successful growth 」- Disruptive innovation technology theories . When the specific case through the quality detected, go to quantity study. Th quantity study include building a finance model,calculate Discount Cash-Flow, Equity Internal Return Ratio, Net Present Value, Sensitive analysis Senarial analysis to find out the financial feasibility. This research hopes to find out a suitable star-up opportunity which could pass all the examination items of quality and quantity study. This research through three whole years to search start-up opportunities., examed dozens cases, and the industies including win-power, solar-cell, bio-energy, fuel-cell and stream sector contain\r\nup-stream, middle-stream, down-stream After through this research process, shows that it is really hard to find out a suitable, profitable and could content the financial\r\nexpection ratio with high win-odds opportunities to run start-up.\r\nAfter three years, this research finally pick up the solar upest-stream sector （modified metelology poly-silicon）as the research case. \r\nThe first reason is that solar industry belongs to re-newable energy, which has strong protenial to become a long term and high conpound growing rate industy.\r\nThe second reason：Taiwan have been developing semi- ductor and LCD industries over twenty years and built firmly industy knowledge foundation.Modified metelology poly-silicon is a disruptive innovation, could enlarge the start-up winodds. \r\nThe third reason is that to start-up in the solar industy up-stream sector could build a high barrier and keep a strategy position in the solar industry. The third reason is that the financial result will fit in with the investor’s expect.

謝辭. i\r\n目錄. iv\r\n表目錄 vi\r\n圖目錄 viii\r\n中文摘要. x\r\nAbstract xi\r\n第一章 緒論 1\r\n1.1 研究的背景與動機 1\r\n1.2 研究的問題與研究目的 1\r\n1.3 資料收集方式及各章架構 3\r\n第二章 文獻探討 6\r\n2.1 科技創業文獻. 6\r\n2.2 投資財務評估 14\r\n2.2 投資財務評估 14\r\n第三章、研究方法 19\r\n第四章、太陽能產業概況 21\r\n4.1 全球電力需求與供應概況.21\r\n4.2 太陽能產業發展簡史及太陽能電池的分類. 24\r\n4.3 矽基太陽能電池相關製作技術.25\r\n4.4 太陽能電池的需求、累計裝機數量及政府補助概況 27\r\n4.5 多晶矽供需概況及晶矽太陽能製造成本探討 31\r\n4.6 國內外太陽能產業廠商概況 38\r\n4.7 太陽能產業的重大議題 45\r\n4.8 研究機構、學術界、產業界訪談記錄 45\r\n第五章個案介紹 56\r\n5.1 個案公司的基本資料 56\r\n5.2 個案介紹. 56\r\n第六章 以「科技創業聖經」檢視新事業機會 61\r\n6.1 選擇正確的產業 61\r\n6.2 找出有價值的機會 79\r\n6.3 管理科技的演變 93\r\n6.4 鎖定市場的真正需求 105\r\n6.5 瞭解客戶採用的行為. 110\r\n6.6 利用既有公司的弱點. 114\r\n6.7 管理智慧財產權 117\r\n6.8 將報酬導向創新 120\r\n6.9 選擇正確的組織架構. 122\r\n6.10 管理風險和不確定性. 124\r\n6.11 對整個新事業機會評估匯整 127\r\n第七章 以財務模型預測新事業的獲利狀況. 136\r\n7.1 基本參數設定. 136\r\n7.2 計算投資費用 140\r\n7.3 建立財務模型. 141\r\n7.4 進行情境模擬及敏感性分析. 142\r\n7.5 匯整敏感性分析的結論 148\r\n第八章 結論與建議. 149\r\n8.1 研究結論 149\r\n8.2 研究建議事項. 155\r\n中文參考文獻 157\r\n英文參考文獻 158