以政府預算保險管理台灣的地震風險

Abstract

台灣由於特殊的地理位置，所以地震、颱風等巨災所造成之損失時有所聞。這些巨災除造成交通、農業等經濟損失，更造成人員傷亡、房屋倒塌，也在每個人心中都刻畫難以抹滅的傷痛。為了因應這些巨災帶來的損失，台灣政府撥出許多補助費用予死傷及失蹤人民或其家屬，也提供某些房屋損失的補助。巨災不只危害個人，也同樣衝擊政府財政。\n本文以台灣的地震風險為研究對象，並將地震損失劃分為經濟損失與財政損失。經濟損失泛指因地震所造成之一切直接損失，財政損失係指政府因災後所需之賑災與重建經費。因此本文不僅考慮地震所帶來的直接損失，同時也涵蓋政府對於災後的各項補助措施，以完整描述地震全面性的影響範圍。除描述地震整體影響外，本文另設計三種政府預算保險（比例式、自負額、給付最高額度與自負額並行等）作為風險管理機制。模擬說明有無風險管理機制輔助之下對地震損失所帶來之影響及其差異，可從中分析此保險的成本和效益。\n本文主要使用國家地震工程研究中心提供之一般建築物損失資料表，輔以中央政府各主管機關對於其下轄業務範圍內之損失統計年報，從中取得因地震所造成之損失統計資料，例如傷亡與失蹤人數、房屋倒塌數、交通損失以及農業損失等，來建立損失模型。損失模型之建立係以模擬出之一般建築物損失為基礎，用迴歸分析評估其與其他損失之相關性，再建立其他損失模型。\n本文之分析說明政府若能落實巨災風險管理，將產生極大的利益，在減少社會經濟損失方面尤為顯著。巨災風險管理是正面且必要之事，無論是住宅地震保險基金或政府預算保險，依初始規劃角度來看，政府皆扮演風險管理者的角色。

Taiwan is usually hit and hurt by some natural catastrophes several times in a year due to its special location. Natural catastrophes brought not only losses of personal properties, agricultural products, and infrastructures but also casualties that brought painful, lasting feelings. In order to deal with the losses caused by natural catastrophes, Taiwan government released significant amount of consolation money for the dead, missing, and injured people. The government also compensate for some house losses. Catastrophes affect not only the private sector economy but also the public finance.\n This paper focuses on the impacts of the earthquake risk on economic losses and public finance losses of Taiwan. The economic losses include all reported losses while the public finance losses reflect the expenses paid for the post-disaster need, including disaster relief and reconstruction. Considering both the economic losses and public finance losses give us a better-informed picture about the consequences of natural catastrophes. After establishing the models for various types of losses, we analyze how government budget insurances can mitigate the natural catastrophe risks. We employ simulations to display the differences in the loss distributions with and without the insurance. The costs and benefits of the insurance can then be analyzed.\nOur model of the earthquake risk is based upon the scenario output generated by a model of the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering of Taiwan. We coupled the scenarios and official statistics on the earthquake losses to construct the building loss model. The models for other types of losses are then established using regression analyses. \nThe above analyses demonstrate how the risk management on natural catastrophes taken by the government can benefit Taiwan. The benefits on the economic losses of the society are particularly apparent. Catastrophe risk management is positive and necessary. The Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund and government budget insurance are the measures for the risk manager - the government.