胡錦濤時期中共軍事戰略發展之研究(2002-2010)

Abstract

2002年胡錦濤接班迄今，在國防政治與建軍治軍理念已漸成系統論述，並藉實際用兵演練據以體現，而其「科學發展觀」指導「科技強軍」、「質量建軍」等建軍路線，並強調「加快建立打贏信息化條件下局部戰爭的作戰力量體系」，顯示其軍事戰略思維已朝時間與空間、戰爭型態和作戰樣式、武器裝備、作戰目標、作戰實力評估、集中兵力、作戰保障、軍隊編成與運用、人民戰爭觀念等九大方向更新。中共認為未來爆發全面核戰可能性基本上可排除，發生全球性常規戰爭可能性越來越小，地區武裝衝突和局部戰爭的危險正取代世界大戰的恐怖，成為最嚴重的安全威脅，故除傳統軍事力量建置外，亦同步強化非傳統安全軍事力量之部署。傳統方面置重解決對台問題、南海主權及預防美國進逼三項戰略重點；非傳統方面，中共對安全環境之憂慮包括生存與發展、傳統與非傳統安全威脅、國內與國際安全問題等，並認為恐怖主義、自然災害、經濟與資訊安全等危害在上升中，共軍必須針對經濟與社會轉型下可能發生的動盪不安進行應對。\n\n2008年馬英九總統就職後，兩岸對立現象雖較以往緩和，然共軍高層仍不放棄使用武力，並沿襲2003年12月中央軍委擴大會議決議，確立對台各階段軍事整備目標，不可諱言，中共仍將是我國家安全最大威脅。中共隨著國力提升，在追求區域，乃至全球性強國之過程中，勢須在國際舞台上扮演更積極的角色，若一味以武力恫嚇台灣，只會增加台灣民眾的反感，製造兩岸敵對情勢。另一方面，中共如果過度迷信武力，並意圖以武力挑戰區域現狀，必將引發其他國家的不安，使中共成為亞太國家共同對抗的對象，兩岸若能和平相處，不僅能讓彼此互蒙其利，而且更將有助於亞太地區之和平穩定。

Since Hu Jintao took over the government from 2002, the politics of national defense and the idea to direct military affairs have been systematized, and performed by the military trainings practically. In addition, the guiding principles of “Making armed forces powerful by science”, “Military build-up based on quality” directed by “The view of science development”, emphasizing on “Establishing the military ability to fight a local war under high technology condition” revealed that China’s military strategic theory has been upgraded in “times and spaces”, “war type and modes of operations”, “weapons”, “military objective”, “war evaluations”, “centralized troops”, “military protections”, “military organizations and performances”, “civil war conceptions”.China thinks that the possibility of the nuclear war is extremely little, likewise, the possibility of global war is smaller. Besides, the terror of world war is replaced by local armed conflict and local war, becoming the most severe intimidation to security. As a result, China not only constructs the traditional military forces, but also intensifies its deployment of non-traditional military strengths.In the traditional aspect, China emphasize on the cross-strait issue, the Southern sea rights and the prevention of the United States of America. In the non-traditional aspect, the anxious of China includes the existence and development, traditional and non-traditional intimidation, the internal and external security problems. Besides, China thinks that the danger of terrorism, natural calamities, economics and information security are arising, the PLA has to do something with these turbulent situations in the transformation of economic and society.\n\nAlthough the cross-strait relation has become much moderate after the inauguration of the President Ma in 2008, the policymakers of the Chinese government still not give up to use military force, moreover, they followed the resolution reached in the enlarged meeting of the military commission of the central committee of the CMC in December 2003, established the military objective of every stage of Taiwan affairs.It is obviously that China is the most intimidation of our national security, as long as the promotion of the China’s national power, China has to play the active role in the international stage in the process of becoming the powerful nation worldwide. It will just increase the disaffection of Taiwan’s people and create the opposite situation of the cross strait if the China’s government do nothing but threats Taiwan with its military forces. On the other side, it will cause the discomforts of many countries if China had too much blind faith in its military force, and results in that China becomes the enemy of the Asia Pacific Zone. Furthermore, it will create the most benefit and contribute the most to the Asia Pacific Zone if the cross strait could reach the objective of the peaceful coexistence.