大型競選造勢活動研究：1996~2008四次總統選舉個案

Abstract

本研究針對1996年至2008年台灣總統大選的造勢活動，挑選各次大選中特定的大型造勢活動做為個案研究分析，分別在文宣策略、活動幅員、媒體效果及民意支持度等影響層面做為分析指標，輔以當年曾參與選舉的競選工作人員及記者的深度訪談，找出四次總統選舉各類造勢活動的類型及表現方式，並分析各項類型活動在每次大選運用的變化。\n 研究個案的選擇指標是以影響性及大型活動(Mega-events)規模的條件來篩選，依序探討1996年陳履安「行腳祈福」、2000年陳水扁「百萬人民站出來」、2004年陳水扁「牽手護台灣」及2008年「Long Stay下鄉長住」四個案例。以四次不同年代的總統副總統選舉中特定單一的造勢活動，依據「事件行銷」及「選舉造勢活動」對大型活動(Mega-events)的分類，以及SWOT優劣勢分析模式進行個案研究。\n 本研究深入訪問四個案的競選總部高階負責人，以及當時擔任該造勢活動的媒體採訪記者，以「半結構性訪談」方式，了解四個案造勢活動的規劃及執行細節，以及受訪者認為該造勢活動個案對選戰的影響效果。\n 研究發現大型競選造勢活動能夠型塑及強化選戰主軸、且達成多項競選功能成效，並加深勝選的助力。最後綜合比較四大個案，分析在各自年代的歷史意義、選情熱度以及投入資源程度的不同，對當年以及往後選舉的影響層面也有不同的意義。

This study investigates the impacts of campaign events (rallies) on the result of Taiwan’s presidential elections from 1996 to2008. The analysis focuses on the campaign strategies, the scale of the activities, media effects as well as the strength of public support at each campaign event. Combining with in-depth interviews with campaign office staff and journalists, the study aims at detecting the patterns of the campaign rallies, and their impacts on the particular presidential election. \n Four significant campaign events (also known as Mega Events) are selected for this study and they are: Chen Li-an’s \" Blessing March\" in 1996, Chen Shui-bian’s \"Million People to Stand Up\" in 2000, Chen Shui-bian’s \"Hand in hand to cherish Taiwan \" in 2004, and Ma Ying-jeou’s \" Long Stay\" in 2008. The cases are chosen based on the scale and size of the activities and their potential impacts on election outcomes. In addition to event analysis, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the high-level executives from the campaign headquarters of the chosen cases and journalists who were following these events at that time, to provide an in-depth analysis on planning and execution details, and to gauge the impacts of each rally from the interviewees’ perspectives. \n The findings suggest that large-scale campaign rallies are indeed capable of strengthening campaign fever, consolidating supports, and thus, enhance the chance of winning. Last but not the least, a comprehensive comparison of the four mega-events (including the analysis of the historical meaning of the event at that time period, citizen enthusiasm to the particular election, and resources allocation for each event) is included in the discussion. The findings suggest that each event does have a different historical meaning at its own time and has impacted on subsequent elections.