兩岸關係中跨越制衡與搭便車策略：台灣的避險策略

Abstract

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The thesis researches on the nature of the Taiwan’s mainland policy, particularly under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou. The most important concern of the thesis is the problem of Taiwan’s response towards rising China. First, the balancing-bandwagoning concept of Stephen Walt is researched. Critique of the concept and alternative theories are also considered. Second, the balancing-bandwagoning hypothesis is applied towards the past and present of Taiwan’s mainland policy. The test of Walt’s hypothesis reveals its weaknesses and limitations as a research framework. Despite predictions of Walt, Taiwan doesn’t use pure balancing or pure bandwagoning in its approach towards China but rather applies mixed strategy containing elements of both balancing and bandwagoning. Taiwan’s mainland policy evolves and includes more and more elements of the bandwagoning preserving the essential opportunities for the balancing. This strategy can be called hedging. Third, the thesis develops the concept of hedging and researches on the nature of Taiwan’s hedging strategy. The current mainland policy of Taiwan is a combination of opportunity-seeking and risk-aversion. The changes and continuities in Taiwan’s mainland policy founded and the reasons for the transformation of the Taiwan’s mainland policy also established. The thesis also gives tentative predictions on the future of the Taiwan’s strategy towards rising China as well.