Is China a Threat? A Defense Industry Analysis

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, the \"China threat\" has become an issue of debate, and different policy proposals have been drawn accordingly. By reviewing two rounds of defense industry reform in China and the resulting defense industry capability level, this paper argues that China is not likely to pose a long-term threat to the United States, because China does not have strong indigenous defense industry capability. China cannot, moreover, sustain competition with the United States without a strong defense industry.