都會區就業成長來源的動態分析

Abstract

移轉份額分析是研究都會區經濟或就業成長來源最重要的方法之一。近30年的研究發展，使得移轉份額分析無論是在理論設計的改進上，抑或是實證估計的工具與方法的應用上，皆有著相當大的成就。但不可諱言的是，移轉份額分析仍受限於傳統的都市與區域經濟，假設沒有國際貿易下進行各種研究。因此本文將考慮國際貿易行為，如此不但能使移轉份額分析更為一般化，也更能應用在小型開放經濟體系。當我們利用製造業的聯合資料來作迴歸分析，結果發現國際貿易效果是顯著的。其次，由於移轉份額分析式是一結構等式，因此無法利用傳統的VAR計量法來作估計，故本文利用結構性VAR來作研究，但結果並不好，也許需要更進一步的確認，或是新計量技巧與理論限制的推衍。

Shift-share analysis focuses on the sources of employment growth of a region. Through researches of the last thirty years, shift-share analysis has been enormously improved and extended no matter from theoretical revisions or empirical methods. However, the related researches are confined to a traditional assumption of urban and regional economics, namely, assume that no international trade. This makes shift-share analysis more restricted and furthermore it can`t apply to small open economy. This paper will consider international trade to revise shift-share equation and we call this new equation as open shift-share. This equation is included national growth, industrial mix, regional competition and international trade effect. We use pooling data of manufacture to estimate these growth effect and we find out that international trade effect play a critical role. Unfortunately, the result of SVAR is provided little to analyze due to a poor identification.