最低工資對青少年的就業影響:台灣實證

Abstract

本研究利用台灣1979至2000年之時間序列季資料，並蒐集製造業細分為22個中分類後之完整30個行業別的就業、薪資和青少年就業結構等資料，在控制勞動市場需求面和供給面因素下，探討基本工資對青少年就業、失業及勞動參與率之影響。實證結果顯示，當基本工資增加10％時，會使得青少年就業比率增加約0.6％~0.7％、勞動參與率增加約0.7％~0.8％幅度稍大於就業比率，但對青少年的失業率則無明顯的影響效果。本研究得到基本工資提高有助於青少年就業，但其效果不大，與近年來新的文獻上主張基本工資有正面就業效果的結論相符合。惟本研究更發現正面就業效果背後的主因並非來自於失業的減少，而是基本工資的提升誘使更多青少年勞工進入勞動市場尋找工作，長期而言對人力資本的累積將有不利得影響。

Using Taiwan`s quarterly time series data from 1979 to 2000, this paper investigates the effect of minimum wage on youth employment and unemployment. Data of 30 industries including demand and supply sides factor are considered in the analysis, the estimation results show that 10% increase in the minimum wage would increase youth employment rate by 0.6-0.7% and youth labor participation rate by 0.7-0.8%, but no significant effect was found for youth unemployment rate. Thus, our results are consistent with, though the magnitude is small, the findings of New Economics of the Minimum Wage. However, we find that the positive employment effect of minimum wage is not driven from the decrease of unemployment of the youth, rather is mainly from the increase of participation rate by the youth. Therefore, the long run effect of the minimum wage on youth may be harmful for the accumulation of human capital and thus long run economic growth.