都會的產業聚集經濟與就業變化之研究

Abstract

移轉份額分析是研究都會區經濟或就業成長來源最重要的方法之一。近30年的研究發展，使得移轉份額分析無論是在理論設計的改進上，抑或是實證估計的工具與方法的應用上，皆有著相當大的成就。但不可諱言的是，移轉份額分析仍受限於傳統的都市與區域經濟，假設沒有國際貿易下進行各種研究。因此本文將考慮國際貿易行為，如此不但能使移轉份額分析更為一般化，也更能應用在小型開放經濟體系。本文為了將國際貿易納入，因此對傳統的移轉份額方程式進行修改，得到了開放型移轉份額分析，在傳統的全國成長、產業組合、以及區域競爭效果之外，增列國際貿易效果。當某產業愈傾向外銷導向，則其國際貿易效果將愈大，但傳統的各種成長效果對該產業的影響將下降。這樣的設定與分析應比傳統移轉份額分析更為合理與實用。其次，利用台北都會區的中分類產業的就業資料，我們除了計算出開放型移轉份額分析的各種成長效果之外，本文也利用製造業來作計量估計，發現國際貿易無論是在80年代或是90年代，皆對製造業就業成長具有相當重要的影響力。

Shift-share analysis focuses on the sources of employment growth of a region. Through researches of the last thirty years, shift-share analysis has been enormously improved and extended no matter from theoretical revisions or empirical methods. However, the related researches are confined to a traditional assumption of urban and regional economics, namely, assume that no international trade. This makes shift-share analysis more restricted and furthermore it can`t apply to small open economy. This paper will consider international trade to revise shift-share equation and we call this new equation as open shift-share. This equation is included national growth, industrial mix, regional competition and international trade effect. A more export-oriented industry will generate more notable international trade effect but less other three effects of employment growth. Thus, we can make shift-share analysis more reasonable and applicable. Next, we use employment data of two-digits industries on Taipei metropolitan area to compute all growth effects. Moreover, we find out that international trade effect play a critical role in employment growth of Taipei manufacture.