後冷戰時期菲律賓對中共外交政策之研究

Abstract

自二十世紀四○年代末期以來，菲律賓對中共的外交政策與菲中關係經歷了戲劇性的變化，大致可以分為4個時期：從二十世紀四○年代末到六○年代末和七○年代初的近20年，親美主義與反共的意識形態形成了這一時期菲律賓的對外政策，意識形態與國家安全則是菲國對中共政策的主要考量，菲律賓奉行對中共完全「隔離」的冷戰政策；從七○年代初到九○年代初的近20年中，隨著冷戰體系的逐漸坍塌，菲律賓對外政策從重意識形態和政治轉向為發展外交，從而決定與中共建交，而國家安全在菲中關係中的作用則下降；從九○年代初到二十一世紀初，菲中關係由於後冷戰時期東亞地區格局的變動，以及菲中在南海的爭端，菲國再次評估中共對其國家安全的影響，從而又一次調整與美國的關係，希望借助美國的力量來制衡中共；而自2001年亞羅育總統上台以來，開啟了菲中關係的新時代，雙方建立了戰略合作伙伴關係，步入了雙邊關係的「黃金時期」，並延續至現任總統艾奎若三世。\n 在菲中關係的4個歷史時期，意識形態、美國因素、共產黨活動、歷史遺產、華僑華人、領海爭端、臺灣問題、政治結構、經濟關係等一系列因素從國內與國際的層面相互關聯和作用，此消彼長，共同影響了菲律賓的對中共外交政策。\n 就菲中關係發展的未來趨勢而言，菲中關係將主要受菲國國內政治的影響，傳統的美國因素仍不容忽視，同時，雙方在南海上的爭端儘管暫時擱置，但仍充滿不確定性，這些因素都限制了菲中關係的發展，但中共仍然可以在很大程度上利用菲律賓國內的政治、經濟需求來主導未來菲中關係的發展。

Philippines’ China Policy and Philippines-Sino relations have undergone dramatic changes since the World WarII., and can be divided into four phrases. During the first period, from the late 1940s to the late 1960s and early 70s, the Pro-U.S. principal and anti-communist ideology, two factors formed the Philippines’ foreign policy. Ideology and national security were Philippines’ prime considerations, Philippines pursued a fully isolation Policy towards China. During the second phrase, from the early 1970s and the early 1990s, with the gradual collapse of the Cold War system, Philippines’ foreign policy has shifted from ideology-centric to politics-centric, the development of diplomacy has become the leading foreign policy thought, the above policy based on national security and ideology was declined, in this context, Philippines finally opened its door to People Republic of China. The third phrase started from the early 1990s and ended at the beginning of the21st century, during which Philippines’ idea on national security was reshaped the new structure of East Asia in the post-Cold War times, and the dispute between Philippines and PRC, Philippines re-evaluated PRC’s influence to her national security. Philippines hoped to introduce USA’s power to balance China in this region. A new time for Philippines-Sino was activated since President Arroyo came into power in 2001, in this period, both sides agreed to establish strategic partner relations in 2004. The Philippine-Sino relation has reached the “Golden Era” and continued up to now the president Aquino III.\n In the four stages of Philippines-Sino relations, ideology, the United States, the Communist Party of the Philippines and its rebellion, historical heritage, and overseas Chinese, territorial dispute, Taiwan issue, Philippines’ political structure, economic relations and other factors, interact and intersect from the international level and national level, and finally decide Philippines’ China Policy. \n As far as the future of bilateral relations between Philippines and PRC is concerned, though mostly decided by domestic politics, Philippines-Sino relations cannot yet break away from historic factors like America. And even though the two sides have put away the South China Sea dispute, it still remained so many uncertainties. All these factors have limited the developments of Philippines-Sino relations. Anyway, China still can, to great extend, lead the to-be relations through its strong economic and political power.