合作背後的矛盾：南海爭議下的東協與中國關係之探討

Abstract

This thesis aims to describe the two dynamics present in the maritime disputes of the South China Sea: the negotiation dynamic and the military dynamic. This thesis will focus on two aspects: first, the history of the confidence building measures in the South China Sea; and second, analysis of each relevant nations’ motivation for the current stage of the Southeast Asian military dynamic. The role of ARF in this process and the characteristics of the Track I and Track II diplomatic tools are analyzed along with its difficulties in progressing from the CBMs to preventive diplomacy (PD). The effects of the CBMs’ lack of progress on the current military power acquisitions of the South China Sea claimant states are objects of analysis as well. Within of the analysis of the confidence-building measures, this thesis also contemplates the role of China as the most important variable in the dispute. \nThe second part of this thesis works with the connections between the developments of the South China Sea and the current military buildup in Southeast Asia. Aiming to identify the causes of the military dynamic, the thesis describe the current military capabilities of the main actors of the South China Sea disputes; namely China, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. Moreover, it provides a detailed description of the new equipment acquisitions and the impacts, in terms of the power capabilities, of these actors. A final analysis of the current panorama of the disputes is conducted, analyzing the key events between 2009 and 2010. This thesis concludes that the CBM’s efforts suffer from structural bottlenecks as the adamant adherence to the concept of sovereignty impedes the bloc’s advancement in the establishment of solutions for the maritime territorial disputes. The absence of diplomatic solutions has directly influenced the momentum of militarization in the Southeast Asia.