普欽時期俄羅斯對中國經濟戰略之研究

Abstract

本論文探討的「對外經濟戰略」是政府在國家發展層次、以國家發展作為全盤考量的對外政策準則，是從對外交涉層面的經濟取向，對其政策形成之分析與研究。對外經濟戰略作為國家對外事務交涉的準則，影響國家的外交與對外經貿發展，因此從對外經濟戰略的研究，將有助於理解國家外交的思維，並可成為預測國家對外經貿合作方向的參考。俄羅斯在普欽總統強勢作為的領導之下，使得其國家從經濟蕭條、政局不穩定與外交發展受侷限等問題中，得以蛻變成為重新崛起的大國。而中國是俄羅斯重要的鄰國之一，從經濟面向的分析觀察，中國更是國際上重要的新興市場，從政治面向觀察，中國亦是國際上逐漸擴展影響力的大國；因此筆者研究俄羅斯的對外經濟戰略，是以普欽總統時期作為分析的時間範疇，而以中國作為分析的目標國。\n\n 俄羅斯對於與中國進行的政經合作，是以其國家利益為考量，而其國家利益是以國內經濟發展為原則，並擴展國家在亞太地區的勢力，以實現普欽的東西方平衡外交策略；而俄羅斯對中國的經貿發展事務上，是有著多重因素考量，筆者從俄羅斯亞太政策、全球化影響、俄羅斯能源優勢與俄羅斯遠東地區發展等戰略思維，歸納成系統性政策思維的整理與論述，並將以上綜合陳述，作為解讀俄羅斯對中國的經濟戰略。

In this thesis, the author discuses the “foreign economic strategy”, which tells the principles of foreign strategy that a government takes into consideration in state development. It focuses on the aspect of economy in diplomatic level, analyzing how the policy is formed. Being the principle of international affairs, foreign economic strategy effects the development of diplomacy and international business. Thus, this study helps to comprehend the context of state diplomacy and anticipates the way of international trade. Under the strong leadership of President Putin, Russia, originally a hybrid of economic depression, political unrest and diplomatic plight, turns into a great power. China, an important neighbor of Russia, is not only a rising market in international business, but a great power in international politics; thus this thesis researches Russia’s economic strategy, and focus on China’s aspect during Putin’s era.\n\n Russia, takes its national interests into consideration, cooperate with China in economic and political affairs. Its national interests mainly focus on economic development and enlargement of its influence in Asia-Pacific region, realizing Putin’s diplomatic strategy to balance the east and west. Therefore, there are multiple factors in Russo-China international trade. The author analyzes the Russia’s Asia-Pacific strategy, the effect of globalization, Russia’s energy superiority and Russia’s Far-eastern development strategy, summarizing Russia’s economic strategy. Therefore, this study shows Russia’s strategic thought toward China in international economic and political affairs.