科技政策與專案評估--- 選樣偏誤、動機、作為、創新與績效整合評估模型

Abstract

世界各國政府均致力提升產業技術的研究發展水準，近年來企業面臨重大的產業升級壓力，唯有透過研究發展可以幫助企業達到創新的目的，因此，我國積極推動如「鼓勵中小企業開發新技術推動計畫(Small Business Innovation Research, SBIR)」、「業界開發產業技術計畫(Industrial Technology Development Program, ITDP)」與「示範性資訊應用開發計畫(IT Application Promotion Project, ITAP)」等科技專案，以鼓勵我國企業進行產業技術與產品之創新研究。企業所提出的創新研究計劃須由該計劃的評審委員會評選，經通過後執行，從政策影響角度來看，應有嚴謹評比模型。本研究擬分析影響廠商創新研發決策的相關因素，同時透過選樣偏誤模型 (Selection Bias Modeling)，探討科技專案政策如何影響參與廠商研發績效。本研究計畫案分為以下三重點： 1. 提出一整合模型分析科技專案政策績效－本研究提出創新管理與績效整合模型，分析科技專案廠商創新管理動機、作為、產業動態競合環境等因素與爭取政府補助的關係，比較不同創新動機、（競爭）結構與資源投入下，獲補助、未獲補助與未申請SBIR計畫廠商的績效； 2. 降低政策評估的偏誤－Lerner (1999)、Eshima (2003)等相關研究以準實驗 (quasi-experiment)方法分析科專補助對廠商發展的中長期影響，然相關選樣偏誤(selection bias) [例如申請廠商自願性(voluntariness)]所造成的問題需要進一步討論。本研究擬參考不同樣本選樣偏誤模型(sample selection model, Heckman, 1979; Heckman & Hotz, 1989; Jaffe, 2002)進行資料分析，以減少政策評估上的偏誤。 3. 持續追蹤分析（跨國）比較不同科技專案績效－本研究擬持續透過調查不同規模的科專計畫廠商，比較分析政府補助對大型企業與中小企業的差異，同時，進行跨國比較研究。

Research & development (R & D) is an essential factor for industrial development and competition. Most governments all over the world encourage their domestic industries to involve in R&D activities. In Taiwan, government provides Technology Development Program (TDP) such as Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR), Industrial Technology Development Program (ITDP), IT Application Promotion Project (ITAP), etc. for industries to help them take innovations. Industries can apply for the program, and government organizes committees to evaluate these applications. Prior project applicability evaluation and post project performance evaluation are both very important. There are three main foci of this research: 1. An integrated model for TDP policy performance evaluation – In this research, we propose an integrated model to analyze the interactions among innovative motivation, conduct, competitive/cooperative environment, and government subsidises, and compare performance among awarded companies, non-awarded companies, and non-applied companies; 2. Selection Bias Model – Lerner (1999), Eshima (2003), etc. applied a quasi-experimental method to evaluate performance of TDP policy. The fact that application for the TDP is voluntary, which means that policy effectiveness must be estimated from self-selected samples. We plan to apply various sample selection models (Heckman, 1979; Heckman & Hotz, 1989; Jaffe, 2002) to assess the policy effects, paying particularly colse attention to the obstacle noted above. 3. To extend the model applicability – We will continue to analyze the policy performance of both the ITDP program and the SBIR program, and conduct a cross-nation comparative study.