東亞地區國際旅遊競爭力影響因素之探討

Abstract

這是一件為期兩年的研究計畫，在第一年裡，透過二階段消費決策模型的推導，我們將可獲得某一目的地經濟體的國際旅遊相對競爭力因果關係式。其次，引進中、台、港、韓的重要供給面變數，一組同時包含東北亞四個經濟體國際旅遊相對競爭力的聯立迴歸模型將被建立。然後，利用1980-2004年東北亞四經濟體國際旅遊相關資料與三階段最小平方法，上述聯立迴歸模型將被估計與分析。最後，依據上述迴歸分析，我們將提出提昇東北亞各經濟體國際旅館競爭力的政策性建議。在第二年裡，引進印尼、菲、新、馬、泰的重要供給面變數，另一組同時包括東南亞五經濟體國際旅遊相對競爭力的聯立迴歸模型將被建立。其次，利用1975-2005年東南亞五經濟體國際旅遊相關資料，上述聯立迴歸模型將被估計與分析。最後，依據上述迴歸分析，提昇東南亞各經濟體國際旅遊競爭力的政策性建議將被提出。

This is a two-year research project. In the first year, the causalities of international tourism competitiveness for each destination economy will be derived based on a two-stage consumption model. Then, by introducing supply-side independent variables of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea, a simultaneous regression model of international tourism competitiveness for four destination economies in the northeast Asian region will be established. Thereafter, the 3SLS will be used to estimate the simultaneous regression model by utilizing 1980-2004 international tourism data of the four destination economies. Finally, dependent upon the above empirical results, policy implications will be suggested to promote international tourism competitiveness of each destination economy in the northeast Asian region. In the second year, by introducing supply-side independent variables of Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, a simultaneous regression model of international tourism competitiveness for five destination economies in the southeast Asian region will be established. Then, the 3SLS will be used to estimate the simultaneous regression model by utilizing 1975-2005 international tourism data of the five destination economies. Finally, policy implications dependent upon the above empirical results will be suggested to promote international tourism competitiveness of each destination economy in the southeast Asian region