貨幣政策法則與匯率波動程度於大小型開放性經濟體系之差異---福利與景氣循環的數量分析

Abstract

貨幣政策法則與匯率波動程度於大小型開放性經濟體系之差異：福利與景氣循環的數量分析摘要在現實的國際總體經濟社會裡，國家相對規模可能會影響國家之最適政策與其對於外來衝擊之反應。但在以包含獨占性競爭與名目僵固性的新開放總體經濟模型 ( New Open Economy Macroeconomics ( NOEM )) 為架構，探討最適貨幣政策與匯率波動性的文獻中，多數研究採取一小型開放經濟體系，或是規模相等之兩國模型；除了質化的討論，至今尚未有文章針對國家規模於貨幣與匯率政策之影響進行數量化分析。本研究採取一不對稱之兩國新開放總體經濟模型，針對國家規模對於最適貨幣政策法則與匯率波動性的影響以模擬進行數量化分析，進而探討最適貨幣政策下之總體景氣循環與福利是否因國家規模而有所差異。相較於理論模型，本研究將強調國家規模的相對大小對於總體經濟、政策與福利的影響幅度。此外，本研究亦將探討匯率轉嫁與經濟開放程度對於上述總體經濟現象造成之影響。此研究計畫之研究重點如下： 1. 評估國家規模對於最適貨幣政策與匯率波動程度的影響。 2. 探討不同的貿易開放程度對於政策與總體經濟的影響，與其效果是否因國家規模不同而有所差異。 3. 探討不同的匯率轉嫁程度對於政策與總體經濟的影響；此不對稱國家規模之設定是否造成其結果與之前文獻結論有所不同。 4. 進行福利分析。

The Implications of the Country Size on Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Volatilities: a Quantitative Assessment of Welfare and Business Cycles. Abstract The country sizes of countries all over the world vary greatly. The relative country size may influence the optimal responses of policies and macroeconomic fundamentals to foreign shocks. In the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) models with monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities, only few theoretical models examine the effects of the country size on the global economy. The quantitative analyses that use calibrations and thus allow more realistic specifications, nevertheless, none has studied the effects of the country size on the monetary policy and exchange rate fluctuations. This study assumes a model with asymmetrically-sized countries and uses calibrations to investigate numerically the impacts that the country size on optimal monetary policy rule, exchange rate flexibility and welfare; further, this research can examine if the dynamics of macroeconomic fundamentals vary with the country size. In addition to the country size, this study will also analyze the influences of the exchange rate pass-through and economic openness on the policy and the economy. The key points of this research project are as follows: 1. Evaluate the effects of the country size on the optimal monetary rule and exchange rate fluctuations. 2. Discuss the impacts of trade openness on the policy and the economy; examine if the effects differ with the country size. 3. Assess the impacts of the exchange rate pass-through on the optimal policy rule and the economy; investigate if the asymmetric country size leads to different implications from previous findings. 4. Assess the welfares.