美元本位制下之匯率政策－多國模型下之數量分析

Abstract

我們利用一個三國（一個大國，兩個週邊國家）的動態隨機一般均衡（DSGE） 模型架構來探討美國的量化寬鬆，特別是在美元扮演了國際貨幣(international currency)的情況下，對於國際社會的影響。此一三國模型使我們可以探討除了美國之外，另兩個區域國家對於量化寬鬆的不同政策反應，會如何改變量化寬鬆對其國內經濟的影響。我們發現，若其中一個國家採取固定匯率制度，另一國則採取彈性匯率，或使其匯率緩慢調整(一開始對美元升值，再逐漸貶值)，則其產出會下降，但亦可減緩通貨膨脹壓力。

In this paper, we use a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the effects of US’s quantitative easing (QE) on the rest of the world where the US dollar is served as the invoicing currency for most of the trades. The three-country framework permits the examination of the intraregional effects between the periphery countries as China and Japan, or Korea and Taiwan. This is in line with the recent concern of Taiwan about the speed and magnitude of exchange rate adjustment in response to QE, particularly, relative to neighboring countries. This may affect the QE’s effect on Taiwan. Therefore, our analyses emphasize the cases where one Periphey country maintains the fixed exchange rate, while the other implements flexible exchange rate or exchange rate movement. Our result shows that the slower and milder adjustment of exchange rate may result in slower recovery of output, but help reduce domestic inflation.