中國大陸民主化的展望：菁英認知之分析

Abstract

西方學界長期關心中國民主化的議題，而中國近年來強調社\r\n會主義民主政治，也逐漸放寬對於民主化理論探討的箝制，\r\n無論是西方或中國都興起中國民主化的研究熱潮。面對眾多\r\n中國民主化的研究，本計畫認為可參考David Potter,\r\nDavid Goldblatt, Margaret Kiloh and Paul Lewis 等學者\r\n在《民主化》(Democratization) 一書中所提到的現代化理\r\n論途徑（modernization approach）、轉型理論途徑\r\n（transition approach）、結構理論途徑（structural\r\napproach）等三種民主化理論取向，並加上第四種：外在環\r\n境理論途徑(external environment approach) 來加以探\r\n討。事實上，學者使用這些不同的途徑後發現，任何國家有\r\n關民主化的經驗證據是如此複雜且涉及諸多面向，以致於沒\r\n有任何單一理論途徑能完全捕捉這些複雜性，並提出令人滿\r\n意的解釋。本研究擬從轉型理論途徑與外在環境理論途徑來\r\n觀察中國大陸民主化的可能性，前者強調歷史衝突過程當中\r\n的政治菁英作用，後者強調台灣民主政治對於中國的燈塔效\r\n應。\r\n綜合轉型理論途徑與外在環境途徑，本計畫將探討中國菁英\r\n階層對於中國民主政治與台灣民主效應的認知，包括兩個主\r\n題：中共十七大揭示建立社會主義民主政治的目標，其內容\r\n究竟是繼續堅持威權主義，或者有可能開始循序漸進邁向西\r\n方式自由主義民主政治下，政黨競爭與維護個人自由、人權\r\n的道路？台灣民主化經驗究竟對於中國學術菁英的認知造成\r\n何種影響？本研究計畫除了針對中國民主化的相關文獻進行\r\n分析外，更希望透過與中國大陸學者專家與學校社團負責人\r\n的田野訪談，探討中國大陸民主化可能的走向。

Western academia has been persistently attentive to\r\nissues of Chinese democratization. Recently, as China\r\nhas stressed the socialist form of democracy and\r\nrelinquished gradually the control of the discussions\r\non democratization theory, much research of Chinese\r\ndemocratization has been emerging in both the West\r\nand China. Among such studies, this present one\r\nintends to refer to the three theoretical\r\norientations—the modernization approach, transition\r\napproach, and structural approach—by David Potter,\r\nDavid Goldblatt, Margaret Kiloh, and Paul Lewis in\r\nDemocratization (1997), as well as the external\r\nenvironment approach as the fourth, to gain further\r\ninsight. By drawing on these different approaches,\r\nthe researcher has found that any country＇s\r\nempirical experiences about democratization are so\r\ncomplicated and multifaceted that no single theory\r\ncan encompass their complexity and offer satisfactory\r\nexplanations. This research thus plans to observe the\r\npossibility of Chinese democratization through the\r\ntransition and external environment approaches, the\r\nformer emphasizing how the political elite functioned\r\nin historical confrontations, the latter the extent\r\nto which Taiwan＇s democracy has served as a model\r\nfor China.\r\nThe research aims to explore the Chinese elite\r\nclass＇s perceptions of Chinese democracy and the\r\neffects of Taiwan＇s democracy by means of the\r\ntransition and external environment approaches. It\r\nincludes two main issues. First, is the objective of\r\nestablishing socialist democracy announced by CCP＇s\r\n17th congress authoritarian in essence, or is it\r\npossible for China to gradually approach Western\r\nliberalism and democracy, promoting competitions\r\namong political parties and protecting individual\r\nfreedom and human rights? Second, how have Taiwan＇s\r\ndemocratic experiences influenced the Chinese\r\nacademic elite? In addition to analyzing literature\r\non Chinese democratization, the research will conduct\r\ninterviews with Chinese scholars and student\r\nassociation leaders to explore the possible direction\r\nof Chinese democratization.