選區環境條件與選民行為:一九九八年立法委員選舉之科際整合研究

Abstract

台灣政治學界的選民研究在資料的蒐集方面特重以選民「個人」為單位的資料。這樣的趨勢,比較趨向以社會心理因素來解釋選民的投票行為。但選民行為的解釋,並不以社會心理因素為已足,選民所處的環境因素可能也是非常重要的解釋變項。在選舉研究的樣本涵蓋若干選區,而研究者又企圖解釋全體跨選區選民的行為傾向時,更是如此。在立法委員選舉中,每一個選區就是一個選舉環境。各個選區環境也許不能完全獨立於其他選區的影響之外,但各有其特殊性,應該是個可以預期的事。本研究認為要適當解釋台灣選民行為的傾向,應該把每一個受訪者身處的政治環境列入理論中,與其他變項一同考慮。如此,我們或可得到一個比較完整的解釋模型。 本研究擬利用一九九八年的立法委員選舉時,進行選民的抽樣面訪。除了傳統上我們共同接受的解釋變項,例如政黨認同、候選人評價、政治議題立場、媒體資訊的攝取、族群背景、教育程度等之外,我們也同時把受訪選民所處的選區環境納入考慮。我們考慮的環境變項包括各個選區的政治、社會、經濟、傳播條件與過程。選民的社會心理因素、人口學變項、媒體運用行為等,將透過面訪調查來蒐集;大部分的政治、經濟、社會條件變項的資料,則將透過現成的政府與民間統計、剪報、選舉文宣等來蒐集。 選民所處的環境並非全然是政治性的,但這並不排除政治性因素,在選舉中有政治效果。本研究將由社會科學中不同領域的學者,共同討論、分析,並各自撰寫不同角度觀察的研究報告。

Most researcher of electoral behavior in Taiwan build their models based on data collected on individuals. This is understandable because socio-psychological variables are still the most often used base for theory-building in the study of electoral behavior. However, there are still other variables that could be utilized in understanding behavior of voters. Environmental factors, for instance, would add more power to a theory in explaining behavior of voters living in different social contexts. This is more so when we attempt to explain voter behavior in a national election containing many constituencies. Legislator election is a case of this kind. The main theme of this research project is that in order to explain voter behavior we need to add contextual factors to our theories in addition to conventional variables such party identification, issue position, and candidate evaluation. This project is an inter-disciplinary study on voting behavior in Legislator election. We plan to conduct surveys on a national sample of Taiwanese voter before and after the Legislator election in late 1998. In addition, available statistics from government publication, achieves, and news paper reports are to be collected to construct indicators for social context of constituencies sampled in our survey.