金磚四國與國際政治板塊之變遷---印度FTA策略與亞洲經濟整合

Abstract

自1991年採取對外開放的經改政策後，印度經濟成長快速，在本世紀初躍升為亞洲第三大經濟體，並被列為最具發展前景的金磚四國（BRICs）之一。更重要的是，印度在2005年受邀參與東亞經濟高峰會，成為東協加六的亞洲經濟整合模式的一員。2009年8 月印度與亞洲排名第四的經濟體南韓簽署含括減免關稅、開放服務市場、投資保護、經濟合作等方面的全面經濟夥伴關係協定(Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, CEPA)，結束兩國間長達三年半的FTA談判。該協定將於2010年初開始執行，此後10年內印度將對85%南韓進口商品實行關稅減免，南韓將對90%印度進口商品實行類似措施。這是印度第一次和已開發經濟體締結自由貿易協定，也是南韓首度與新興經濟體達成自由貿易協定，料將為兩國貿易、投資與勞力交流奠定長期基石，尤其是雙邊貿易預計未來十年將可從現在的每年150億美元增加一倍。由於我國與印度皆位於亞洲，且印度近年來獲得我國政府的重視，被列為我國爭取新興市場的主要目的國之一。有鑑於此，本計畫擬首先剖析印韓兩國簽訂CEPA的動機、目的、談判策略與預期獲利，繼而討論該協定對亞洲經濟整合及我國的衝擊，終而提出我國的因應對策。

Since its opening door and engaging market economic reform in 1991, india’s economic growth has been at a rapid pace. With the advent of this century, India has emerged as the third largest economy in Asia and is enlisted as a member of BRICs, the most promising emerging economies on the globe. More importantly, India was invited to attend the first East Asian Summit in December 2005 and has become a member of ASEAN plus six model, the widely accepted model of Asian economic integration. In August, 2009, India signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea, the fourth largest economy in Asia. With end of three- and-half-year FTA negotiations, the agreement includes tariff reduction, opening service market, investment protection and economic cooperation and will be implemented by early 2010. This is India’s first FTA with a developed economy and South Korea’s first FTA with an emerging economy. The CEPA specifies the elimination/reduction of import duties on 85% of South Korean exports and 90 % of India’s sales in the next ten years and will pave a way for increasing long term interactions of bilateral trade, investment and labor forces. In particular, annual bilateral trade volume is expected to be doubled from current US$15 billion in the next decade. As both Taiwan and India are in Asia and India has been targeted by our government as a priority market for exports promotion, this research project intends to first explore motivations, goals, negotiating strategies and expected gains of both India and South Korea, then its implications for the Asian economic integration and Taiwan, and finally our coping strategy.