中國大陸重商主義發展模式之分析：以石油能源部門之全球戰略佈局為例-子計畫四：中國大陸重商主義發展模式之分析: 以俄羅斯石油能源戰略布局為例(I)

Abstract

「中國崛起」議題近來已成為全球討論的焦點，各界紛紛以不同的角度切入來探討此一現象。本文假定中國經濟持續穩定發展，繼而使中國綜合國力提升，以達到「中國崛起」的目標為前提，進而探討中國經濟能夠持續穩定發展的根源。無論中國經濟未來發展如何，但都必須倚靠充足且穩定的能源供給，方可支撐經濟的持續發展。由於上世紀九○年代初中國已經成為原油進口國，且隨經濟快速發展，能源的需求快速地提升，中國開始積極向國際市場購買原油。原油雖屬國際市場上自由買賣的商品，但其屬性亦屬於戰略物資，且加上其稀有性的特性，故獲得原油的成本、風險性亦大幅度增加。於是中國在國際市場上獲得原油的方式便開始往多樣化、而購買原油亦不僅限於單一區域。對於中國而言，除了能獲得充足的能源之外，最重要的是能將所採購的能源安全運抵中國。經由海上所運送的原油，以中國現有的實力還不足以確保其安全無虞，而中俄之間的能源合作便無此顧慮。中俄有共同邊界，俄羅斯經由油管直接將原油輸送至中國境內，對中國而言，既可確保能源供應穩定，且其安全性亦大幅提升，與中國由海運所獲得能源的各種條件相比，安全性佳是中俄能源合作所獨有的特色。

“China Rising” is a hot issue in the field of global media and academic circle, and it is discussed from different levels and aspects. This paper assumes that Chinese economy keeps developing steadily, forming the raising of Chinese synthetic national power, and this will reach the goal of “China Rising”. This paper will focus on the origin of steady development of Chinese economy. No matter how Chinese economy develops in the future, China should rely on sufficient and steady energy supply, assuring the steady development of Chinese economy. In order to reach this goal, Chinese diplomatic authorities actively expand the connection with global energy-riched countries, and Chinese high-ranked officials also are arranged to visit these global oil-riched countries. In addition to sufficient energy supply, the most important point is how they are transmitted to China safely. The energy cooperation between China and Russia can bypass the risk of crude oil transmission by sea, because the pipelines from Russia lead directly to China. In a word, security is the sole factor of China-Russia energy cooperation comparing with the energy supply from another region in the world.