衝突與合作---探索台灣兩岸政策的轉折 (2004 - 2008)

Abstract

本研究計畫的目的主要是接續我博士論文中的研究主題與架構，把研究的涵蓋時間訂在2005 到2008 年這段時期，探討有哪些因素可能影響到台灣對中國大陸的衝突與合作。其主要研究問題有以下三點。一、選舉即將來臨時台灣有關兩岸的政策是否會趨於激進或較具衝突性？為什麼？二、兩岸經貿交流是否能夠阻止台灣對大陸出現挑釁的行動？為什麼？三、美國的對台政策是否能夠有效阻止台灣對大陸出現挑釁的行動？為什麼？本計畫將以VAR 時間序列的統計分析法針對上述問題進行研究，並且輔以個案分析法以為論述之佐證。本計畫預期以兩年時間完成資料之收集整理與分析，以及研究成果報告之撰寫。

This project extends the research themes and framework of my dissertation to the period of 2005-2008. It investigates the factors that might have potentially affected the conflict and cooperation that Taiwan directed toward China during the period. Its research questions are as follows. (1) Will Taiwan』s actions toward China turn conflictual when national elections near? Why or why not? (2) Can cross-Strait economic exchanges effectively restrain Taiwan』s conflictual actions toward China? Why or why not? (3) Is U.S. Taiwan policy able to stop Taiwan from directing conflictual actions toward China? Why or why not? To find out the answers to the above questions, I will apply the methods of VAR time-series analysis and case studies in this project. The project is expected to be completed within a two-year span.