金磚四國與國際政治板塊之變遷-當前俄羅斯對外政策走向對台海安全的戰略意涵(II)

Abstract

子計畫八：當前俄羅斯對外政策走向對台海安全的戰略意涵摘要本計畫將從國際戰略途徑與地緣政治途徑檢視當前俄羅斯的對外政策路線走向及其對未來台海安全的戰略意涵。去（2008）年5 月上任的俄羅斯新總統梅德費杰夫所採行的對外政策路線，基本上沿襲其前任普欽的政策路線；同時，梅氏的對外政策概念也存在微妙的調整。本計畫認為，梅德費杰夫對外政策路線的核心概念包括：（一）捍衛俄羅斯的國家利益；（二）強調聯合國在處理國際事務中無可取代的地位；（三）強調俄羅斯的國際責任與俄羅斯尊重國際法的規範，不再強調俄羅斯的大國地位；（四）主張多極世界秩序，反對單極世界秩序；（五）強調俄羅斯將與美歐改善關係；（六）強調俄羅斯在獨立國協地區以及其他鄰近地區的特殊利益。本計畫認為，此一俄羅斯對外政策新走向，在戰略三角的互動以及地緣政治的制約之下，勢必對台海安全產生不容忽視的衝擊。本計畫將分為8 篇進行分析。第一篇：緒論。第二篇：當前俄羅斯國家安全概念的定位及其對外政策方針。第三篇：當前俄羅斯對獨立國協的政策及其對台海安全的戰略意涵。第四篇：當前俄羅斯對北約組織的政策及其對台海安全的戰略意涵。第五篇：當前俄羅斯對歐洲聯盟的政策及其對台海安全的戰略意涵。第六篇：當前俄羅斯對亞洲的政策及其對台海安全的戰略意涵。第七篇：當前俄羅斯對非洲與拉丁美洲的政策及其對台海安全的戰略意涵。第八篇：結論。

Sub-project 8: The Strategic Implication of the Orientation of Current Russia’s Foreign Policy for the Security across the Taiwan Straits abstract This study is aimed at examining the orientation of current Russian foreign policy line and accordingly predicting its strategic implication for the security across the Taiwan Straits in the future. Russian foreign policy line under the new president Medvedev, who took office in May last year (2008), is basically a continuation with some subtle changes of his predecessor Putin’s line. The core elements of Medvedev’s foreign policy concept include: (1) the defense of Russian national interests; (2) the emphasis on the supremacy and indispensability of UN role in dealing with international affairs; (3) the stress on Russian international responsibility and Russian respect of international norm instead of the stress on Russian international influence; (4) the insistence on the establishment of a multipolar world order instead of a monopolar one; (5) the emphasis on the improvement of relations with the United States and the European Union; and, (6) the emphasis on Russian special interests and policy priority in the CIS and other neighboring areas. This study has found that, in the context of the interaction of triangle politics and the geopolitical constraints, the orientation of current Russian foreign policy line in this direction will definitely create an impact on the security across the Taiwan Straits in the future which can not be ignored. Against this back ground, this study will be divided into 8 parts for analysis. Part 1: Introduction. Part 2: The orientation of current Russia’s national security concept and guiding principles of its foreign policy. Part 3: Current Russia’s policy toward CIS countries and its strategic implication for the Security across the Taiwan Straits. Part 4: Current Russia’s policy toward NATO and its strategic implication for the Security across the Taiwan Straits. Part 5: Current Russia’s policy toward European Union and its strategic implication for the Security across the Taiwan Straits. Part 6: Current Russia’s policy toward Asia and its strategic implication for the Security across the Taiwan Straits. Part 7: Current Russia’s policy toward Africa and Latin America and its strategic implication for the Security across the Taiwan Straits. Part 8: Conclusion.