金磚四國與國際政治板塊之變遷-魯拉政府時期巴西與中國政經互動研究：權力競逐抑或是合作共榮(II)

Abstract

巴西是金磚四國(BRICs)中唯一位在歐亞陸塊之外的國家，魯拉(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)總統上台後，巴西經濟走穩，其在拉丁美洲與全球的影響力也逐漸提升。未來，倘國力增長的巴西確實漸保有區域及全球的影響力，不僅將影響拉美權力分配，衝擊美國在美洲的霸權地位，更提升其對發展中國家的影響力。在魯拉政府時期，巴西與中國驚人的貿易實績，是支持兩國經濟成長及深化雙邊關係發展的主因之一。在2008年金融風暴後，中國更在2009年4月取代美國成為巴西最大貿易夥伴。然而，回顧以往緊密的經濟關係雖是中巴決定強化關係的重要因素之一，相反的也會製造麻煩與衝突。其次，由於中巴強化雙邊關係對可能動搖美國對拉美地區的傳統影響力，再加上全球氣候變遷對中巴兩國的影響甚大，環保問題勢將牽動中巴經濟發展戰略。基於前述形勢，本計畫擬利用現實主義及新自由制度主義，切入分析魯拉政府中巴關係的演變，並探究如下三個議題的成因及初步結果，(1)中巴關係的互補與衝突；(2)中巴關係與國際及區域政治的關聯性；(3)環保問題與中巴國家發展戰略。

Brazil is the only country of the BRICs which is not located in Eurasia. Since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was inaugurated in 2003, Brazil’s economy steadily grows and her influences on the issues related to Latin America and world also increase. In the future, if Brazil really became regional power in the Latin America and got more global influences, then she might erode the U.S hegemonic power in the America, furthermore, she can have more influences among the developing countries. During the Lula government ruling era, the amazing records in bilateral trade between Brazil and China were the major factor that supported two countries’ sustainable economic growth and enhanced bilateral relations. After the 2008 financial crisis, moreover, China substitute for the U.S.A. as the Brazil’s leading export country in April 2009. Although, on one hand, the retrospective close economic relation can be one of the most important reasons let Brazil and China decided to strengthen bilateral relations, on the other hand, it also makes troubles and confrontations. Secondly, because of that the deep relations between Brazil and China could let the traditional hegemonic influences owned by the United States. And thirdly, challenges of environment protection should be one of the most issues related to the economic development strategies made by Brazil and China. According the above situations, we intend to apply two theories, realism and neo-institutional liberalism, to analyze the evolution of the relations between Brazil and China and try to find reasons and preliminary answers concerning to the following three issues, (1) the relations between Brazil and China: cooperation and confrontation.; (2) the Brazil- China relations and its implication to regional and global politics; (3) the environment protection and economic developments: comparative studies of tow BRICs countries, Brazil and China.