選區重劃:制度組成與政治影響

Abstract

本計畫將經濟投票理論應用至台灣縣市長選舉，並進而探討致使縣市長選舉結果出現政黨輪替的可能變數，已彌補現有文獻僅考量政治層面、以及中央層級選舉之不足。在研究期間方面，由於台灣至1978 年解嚴及1988 年解除黨禁後，政黨競爭的型態才慢慢浮現，故本計畫採用1989 年至2005 年5 屆、21 個縣市的縣市長選舉，共105 個樣本數作為研究對象，搭配實證模型的估計，探討以下問題：一、分析與瞭解此一期間內，台灣縣市長選舉政黨輪替的情況與經濟表現的關係。二、探究影響縣市長選舉結果出現政黨輪替的影響因素，其中除了本計畫主要探討的地方及全國經濟變數外，其他政治因素也將列入一併考量。三、分析經濟表現與政治因素與發生政黨輪替的因果關係（causality）。四、對地方及中央政府提供關於縣市長選舉之競選策略。此研究計畫的研究重點如下： 1. 除了研究、整理與分析有關經濟投票與政黨輪替的相關文獻之外，並盡可能建立一個理論模架構進行分析。 2. 採用自1988 至2005 年的追蹤資料，利用Probit 模型，分析政治、經濟等解釋變數與縣市長選舉出現政黨輪替的因果關係。 3. 提供台灣地方、中央政府在縣市長選舉競選策略上的參考。

The implementation of electoral redistricting is a starting point and continuously affects the success of over-all electoral reforms. After the total number of single member districts is decided, the electoral boundary of new single member districts will bring different competition structures to voters, candidates, parties and even the issues presented in elections. Unfortunately, it is relatively rare in Taiwan to find studies on this subject. The upcoming implementation of electoral redistricting will not only exercise significant impact on Taiwan’s electoral politics but also provide researchers an opportunity to have a thorough examination on this subject. This project aims at presenting a comprehensive discussion of electoral redistricting. In addition to the institutional arrangements of apportionment and redistricting, it further explores the various types of redistricting commissions in other countries. The compositions, operations, and political consequences of these redistricting commissions will be examined. It argues that, from the experiences of other countries, institutional requirements or principles for reapportionment or redistricting are basically identical. Nonetheless, the ways of redistricting and the organizations of boundary commissions may have different political consequences. These experiences are valuable for Taiwan to find an optimal way of electoral redistricting. The redistricting process reveals a combination of constitutional requirements, political equality, and respect for voter’s living style. The constitutional requirements also bring in population inequality in districts.