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Title: 變遷中的朝鮮半島國際環境特徵與東北亞的和平與安定
Other Titles: Changing Characteristics of International Environment in the Korean Peninsula : Implications for Peace and Stability in Northeast Asia
Authors: 劉德海
Liou, To-Hai
Contributors: 政大外交系
Keywords: 北韓;中國
North Korea;China
Date: 2007
Issue Date: 2013-05-07 14:14:40 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 由於朝鮮半島介於大陸與海洋之間,又恰在中、美、日、俄四大強權的夾縫中,極具戰略重要性,因此,在地緣政治上往往成為海權大國與陸權大國權力鬥爭的競技場。在此背景下,圍繞著朝鮮半島周邊的東北亞國際情勢一向詭譎多變,忽而緊張到劍拔弩張,忽而穩定至充滿願景,總是令人難以逆料。自 2005 年第 4 輪六邊會談簽署 919 共同文件後,緊張情勢似漸緩和,但美國與北韓間的角力並未因此停歇,首先是美國譴責北韓印製美元偽鈔,並 因此對北韓進行金融制裁, 北韓繼而又在 2006 年 7 月以軍事訓練為名 進行試射包括大浦洞二號飛彈在內的 7 枚飛彈,使東北亞情勢 動盪不安。 此外,經貿因素在此一地區的重要性因雙邊與區域自由貿易協定興起,東北亞各國間的經貿互動激增,對此一地區的和平與安定帶來經濟整合與降低武裝衝突的正面意義,但是仍應密切注意此一趨勢對未加入國家所造成不利的政經衝擊。同時,值得注意的是,潛在的歷史因素夾雜著各國日益高漲的民族主義與領土紛爭已在南韓與日本以及中共與日本雙邊關係造成相當大的負面衝擊。以下僅就目前此一地區凸顯的國際環境特徵歸納為五,兩韓關係 起伏不定 、北韓核武危機持續、 韓日關係趨於惡化 、美韓同盟關係緊張、兩韓中共關係強化。然而, 2006 年所呈現的朝鮮半島周邊情勢的特徵進入今年以來幾乎都出現反方向的轉變,足徵朝鮮半島周邊情勢的不變特徵是詭譎多變。
Due to its geo-strategic location sandwiching between continent and sea as well as surrounded by four major powers, China , Russia , Japan and the United States , the Korean peninsula can easily become a playground of power politics. Against this background, international environment surrounding the Korean peninsula is always ever-changing and unpredictable. At a time, military confrontation seems highly possible. Then, it dramatically turns to a stable one with rosy prospect. Later, the tense situation appears again. It is subsequently followed by reopening negotiations. By 2006, at least five major characteristics of the international environment surrounding the Korean peninsula could be identified. They were ups and downs of inter-Korea relations, the continuation of the North Korean nuclear crisis since 2002, deteriorating South Korea-Japanese relations, South Korea-U.S. alliance in crisis and strengthening China 's relations with both North Korea and South Korea . Nevertheless, in the wake of North Korea 's nuclear detonation in October 2006, the Bush administration has changed its North Korea policy to a practical and moderate one since early this year (2007). This has brought about recent honeymoon between Washington and Pyongyang . Fearing that the U.S. might normalize relations with Pyongyang at the expense of its national interest, Japan has no choice but to give up its strong posture toward North Korea and sit down to dialogue with Pyongyang . Meanwhile, South Korea-US relations and inter-Korea interactions become positive, exemplified by signing ROK-US FTA and two Koreas reaching an agreement on the second summit. As for Japan-ROK relations, they have become stable after Abe came to Prime Minister's office, but the improvement of bilateral relationship is more symbolic than substantive. South Korea 's exclusion from Abe's proposal of alliance based upon democratic values is the best example. China's relations with both Koreas are enhancing but will in the foreseeable future be subjected to North Korea's interactions with the U.S. and Japan, in particular its normalizing relations with Washington and Tokyo.
Relation: 國際事務期刊, 1, 113-164
Data Type: article
Appears in Collections:[外交學系] 期刊論文

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