中國大陸與俄羅斯貿易關係之發展、轉變與其意涵

Abstract

本文以綜合歸納中國大陸和俄羅斯貿易互動及分析實證數據之途徑，探討兩國經貿關係的特質、變化、發展趨勢及其意涵。提供貿易角度新視野來觀察中、俄兩國對外經濟發展之最新動態。研究發現，中俄貿易除了因符合比較利益原則而呈現穩定增長態勢外，亦具階段性發展特質：由初期中國對俄貿易逆差轉為順差，且貿易產品結構由低階消費財轉向二級工業製品之比重逐漸提高。分析轉變的關鍵，除了體現兩國內部結構轉型與經濟成長貢獻外，中國大陸政府由上而下主動介入之策略，促使兩國經貿多元化發展，亦發揮了影響性功能。

The paper attempts to sum up the process of trade between Mainland China and Russia and analyzes empirical data in order to discuss its characteristics, changes, development trend and meaning. It intends to provide a new view of trade to observe the latest trends in their external economic development. It is found that, apart from the continual and steady increase in bilateral trade in accordance with the law of comparative advantage in international trade, Mainland China`s trade with Russia has shifted from a deficit in the initial stage to a surplus in Mainland China`s favor. The trade product structure has also changed primarily from low-level consumer goods to industrial products. The change reflects the transition that has taken place in Mainland China`s economic structure and the contribution made by economic growth in each of the countries. Besides, the government of Mainland China has adopted a strategy of actively being involved in the promotion of trade with Russia and the pluralistic development of economic and trade relations, which has proven to be beneficial to the development of economic and trade relations between the two countries.