從轉型政策效應論獨協國家之顏色革命

Abstract

獨協國家政府已透過選舉制度還政於民；經由私有化政策將經濟權回歸人民；並採取對外開放政策融入國際社會。然而，轉型多年後獨協國家卻陸續發生群眾街頭運動式「顏色革命」(color revolution)，顯示政府轉型政策並未達成符合人民對改革預期之成果。因此，本文冀圖以結果論觀點，將「顏色革命」視為轉型政策落實後之反饋效應(repercussion effects)與最終結果，依此結果選擇曾發生「顏色革命」的獨協國家為研究標的，檢視其國家政府轉型政策落實情況及其轉型政策效應，解析當地轉型發展障礙，探討顏色革命所隱含之轉型實證意義與啟示，並藉此驗證具強制性「暴力比較優勢」的政府政策之重要性與影響力。意期望獲取其轉型經驗，以為借鏡，裨益其他社會轉型發展，發揮本文實務性價值。此外，有鑑於國內對轉型或獨協國家之研究，多偏向於以政治理論、外交或安全戰略為主，故本文將轉向於著重經濟層面的政策效應分析，選擇獨協國家此次改革主體中的私有化政策與對外開放政策兩項變數進行剖析，以期達成深入分析和廣化國內對獨協國家研究議題之目的，為轉型發展研究提供經濟分析面向的觀察視野，增加本文學術價值。

The governments in the CIS have already handed state power back to the public through the electoral system, and returned economic rights to the public through the privatization policy. They also adopted an open door policy to incorporate with the international community. However, after many years of the transition, the color revolutions happened in the CIS. This showed that the transition policies have not reached the achievement anticipated by the public. This paper aims to study the countries where the color revolutions took place using the view of consequentialism; that is, the color revolution is viewed as the repercussion effects and the final result of the transition policies that were implemented. The paper will analyze the situations and the effects under the implementation of the transitional policy, the obstacles to local transitional development, and to delve into the meaning and influence of the color revolution, and then by the result of the analysis, continue to prove the importance and influence of government policies with "comparative advantage in violence." The foremost purpose of the paper is to get the lessons from their experiences to benefit the transitional development of other societies, in turn, contributing to the practical value of this paper. Secondly, because our country`s research on the transition or the CIS is more focused on political theory, diplomacy or security strategy, this paper will change the research to an economical focus by choosing two main policies of these transition countries as the parameters: the privatization policy and the open door policy. The approach of this paper will help reach deep analysis and widen the topics of the studies on CIS in our country, thus increasing the academic value of this article.