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Title: 中央銀行獨立性與通貨膨脹─追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用
Authors: 洪偉傑
Contributors: 林馨怡
Keywords: 中央銀行獨立性
Date: 2012
Issue Date: 2013-07-01 17:38:25 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 本文使用 Koenker (2004) 的追蹤資料分量迴歸方法分析中央銀行獨立性 (Central bank independence, CBI) 對於通貨膨脹之影響。
透過1974-2010年間93個國家的追蹤資料,以 CBI 的實際 (De facto) 指標 TOR (Turnover rate of central bank governors) 進行實證,
結果顯示在通貨膨脹越高的情況下, CBI 與通貨膨脹間的負向效果越強且顯著;反之,在通貨膨脹較低時,負向效果較弱且不顯著。實證結果說明 CBI 與通貨膨脹間的負向關係並非是固定的,在通貨膨脹越高的環境下,政府擁有越高的誘因採行高通貨膨脹傾向的貨幣政策,故此負向關係越強;反之,在通貨膨脹較低的環境下,政府採行高通貨膨脹傾向的貨幣政策誘因較低,此負向關係較弱。
Reference: 林馨怡、 陳佩玗, 2010。 通貨膨脹與貿易開放性之關係 — 分量迴歸於追蹤資料的應用。 經濟論文 38(1), 1–32。

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